TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dplus KIAof Dplus KIA, Karmine Corp
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$135,674
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$146,635

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,674 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 204 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1b4d…e246backed Karmine Corp48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,6009534.7%33 W · 62 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd8ff…473dbacked Dplus KIA52c15,362$7,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,384.432142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Karmine Corp50c11,838$5,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,918.911643.1%50 W · 66 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Dplus KIA53c10,100$5,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,764.9246050.7%233 W · 227 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ad1…9198backed Dplus KIA49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,099.997051.4%36 W · 34 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Dplus KIA52c9,924$5,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,763.5496048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Karmine Corp51c9,887$5,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,039.491,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Karmine Corp46c9,597$4,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,396.712840.6%52 W · 76 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Karmine Corp47c8,887$4,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,195.2359148.2%285 W · 306 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd75f…ddcbbacked Dplus KIA50c6,442$3,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,220.973540%14 W · 21 L-6.2wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-31.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Dplus KIA52c6,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,88082352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c5…6930backed Karmine Corp48c4,001$1,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,933.471637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-37.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Karmine Corp48c3,975$1,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,907.8247455.3%262 W · 212 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Dplus KIA51c3,621$1,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,774.361376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+55%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6768…4ef1backed Dplus KIA52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44010449%51 W · 53 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked Dplus KIA70c2,701$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.9930554.8%167 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8627…5382backed Dplus KIA68c2,500$1,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.222355.2%123 W · 100 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe156…134bbacked Karmine Corp49c2,449$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2003525.7%9 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83d7…36e7backed Karmine Corp36c2,428$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.78425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-43.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a74…de59backed Dplus KIA52c2,400$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1522962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed Karmine Corp26c2,112$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.337948.3%183 W · 196 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Dplus KIA50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00091854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Karmine Corp47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94029347.8%140 W · 153 L+1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Karmine Corp48c1,941$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.7963344.5%282 W · 351 L-18.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Karmine Corp48c1,819$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.2412642.9%54 W · 72 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Dplus KIA51c1,770$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.5848143.2%208 W · 273 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Karmine Corp32c1,746$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.831,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe660…2ac1backed Dplus KIA63c1,659$1,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.3420150.2%101 W · 100 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked Karmine Corp47c1,616$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.3617444.8%78 W · 96 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Dplus KIA49c1,573$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.9890348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Karmine Corp39c1,411$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55017647.7%84 W · 92 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed Dplus KIA51c1,389$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.5982454.9%452 W · 372 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5de…cabebacked Karmine Corp45c1,221$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54919336.3%70 W · 123 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Dplus KIA67c1,221$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.931,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Karmine Corp32c1,113$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.1813030.8%40 W · 90 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2d0…7bbfbacked Karmine Corp32c1,065$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.928146.9%38 W · 43 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Karmine Corp47c1,050$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.529738.7%115 W · 182 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cec…d241backed Karmine Corp48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003560%21 W · 14 L+5.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+37.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdbca…ca8dbacked Karmine Corp48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010049%49 W · 51 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Dplus KIA50c1,012$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50659554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1350…f908backed Karmine Corp48c1,001$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.296860.3%41 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Karmine Corp48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48035443.2%153 W · 201 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0978…0d99backed Karmine Corp51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5106651.5%34 W · 32 L+9.2wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+57.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x28a3…f681backed Karmine Corp49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49037039.5%146 W · 224 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Karmine Corp50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed Dplus KIA50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50023749.4%117 W · 120 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Dplus KIA50c992.26$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.871,04450.4%526 W · 518 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c2f…9765backed Dplus KIA50c984.36$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.184641.3%19 W · 27 L-6.0wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-27.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd331…733cbacked Dplus KIA53c951$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.9735848.9%175 W · 183 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a2c…5172backed Dplus KIA52c921.1$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.143640.6%177 W · 259 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81a9…df08backed Karmine Corp48c832$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.366653%35 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e51…42cebacked Dplus KIA57c822.72$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.6936155.4%200 W · 161 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65b8…3c05backed Dplus KIA63c797.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.234257.1%24 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b3…4a99backed Karmine Corp48c732.04$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.065944.1%26 W · 33 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+37.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked Dplus KIA52c715.38$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.387451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7456…5148backed Dplus KIA51c642.25$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.7513836.2%50 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Dplus KIA51c626.54$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.3337343.4%162 W · 211 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef4f…4598backed Karmine Corp50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Dplus KIA52c580$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.44564.4%29 W · 16 L+7.1wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+35.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x84ce…6c4abacked Dplus KIA52c576.92$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.9257347.6%273 W · 300 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18c2…529abacked Dplus KIA50c561.98$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.9913442.5%57 W · 77 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Dplus KIA49c550.88$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.951,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Karmine Corp32c517.59$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.6323832.4%77 W · 161 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0e6…fa86backed Dplus KIA50c507.68$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.841735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-37.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d28…0d64backed Karmine Corp48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24015143.7%66 W · 85 L-13.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-19.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed Dplus KIA50c487.43$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.7216546.1%76 W · 89 L-11.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-19.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec57…0e41backed Dplus KIA53c471.7$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.71560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+45.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Dplus KIA52c419$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.1248852%254 W · 234 L-2.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Dplus KIA50c418.14$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.0727644.9%124 W · 152 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6102…1913backed Dplus KIA60c416.66$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.669460.6%57 W · 37 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x69b9…a5d5backed Dplus KIA50c399.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.927048.1%130 W · 140 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510b…2feabacked Karmine Corp50c398.71$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.42642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf51f…1093backed Dplus KIA51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.166744.8%30 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Dplus KIA51c389.9$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.192,49739.9%996 W · 1,501 L-75.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Dplus KIA53c361.57$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.941,58743.8%695 W · 892 L-73.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc8e…e4a3backed Karmine Corp51c332.75$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.71717.6%3 W · 14 L-4.5wins-0.26per pick44cpaid-70%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Karmine Corp43c322.32$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.640337.7%152 W · 251 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1636…977bbacked Dplus KIA51c313.46$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.465856.9%33 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Karmine Corp36c309.05$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3497254.3%528 W · 444 L+46.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Dplus KIA63c303.66$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.7876953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Dplus KIA52c300.43$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.2179745.8%365 W · 432 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked Karmine Corp31c300$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1338931.9%124 W · 265 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-28.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Karmine Corp32c298.72$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8334151.6%176 W · 165 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e59…2a66backed Karmine Corp49c290.23$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.3623136.4%84 W · 147 L-13.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x13ba…53e4backed Dplus KIA52c288.46$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.4611943.7%52 W · 67 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c02…c6d2backed Dplus KIA52c288.46$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.463135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked Karmine Corp49c271.43$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1337634.2%26 W · 50 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc13b…701ebacked Dplus KIA50c258$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1296453.1%34 W · 30 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf44d…28b8backed Karmine Corp48c253.39$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.631154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6efa…a0a7backed Dplus KIA52c214.61$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.066457.8%37 W · 27 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Dplus KIA72c209.17$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.1769741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Karmine Corp49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9886649.7%430 W · 436 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0fb…8092backed Dplus KIA49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1028447.6%40 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a7e…9dc6backed Dplus KIA52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9646148.8%225 W · 236 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x500f…4c28backed Dplus KIA50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10018849.5%93 W · 95 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x883d…f62cbacked Dplus KIA53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944942.9%21 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9714…5152backed Karmine Corp48c197$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.566139.3%24 W · 37 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Karmine Corp51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10075630%227 W · 529 L-21.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Karmine Corp17c192.63$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2976028.9%220 W · 540 L-0.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf39b…c3e6backed Dplus KIA52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.314148.8%20 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.