TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Movistar KOIof Natus Vincere, Movistar KOI
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$157,547
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$175,784

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,547 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef26…05babacked Natus Vincere10c18,833$1,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,906.941,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5fc…d802backed Natus Vincere2c10,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-90.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x671f…328cbacked Natus Vincere44c9,500$4,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,173.546040%24 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere35c6,954$2,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,463.71,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Movistar KOI61c6,216$3,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,398.1853640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb555…0c4bbacked Natus Vincere30c5,780$1,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,706.818056.3%45 W · 35 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Movistar KOI60c5,290$3,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,12126246.6%122 W · 140 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Natus Vincere43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,15081143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Natus Vincere40c4,554$1,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.481,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere28c4,543$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.171,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere22c4,145$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.021,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed Natus Vincere45c3,986$1,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,793.6643151.3%221 W · 210 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Natus Vincere25c3,531$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.5659952.8%316 W · 283 L-3.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed Movistar KOI57c3,045$1,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,309.5328361.5%174 W · 109 L+18.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Movistar KOI78c2,812$2,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.241,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Movistar KOI56c2,588$1,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.4935448.6%172 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Movistar KOI56c2,457$1,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.121,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Movistar KOI72c2,108$1,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.1970162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5419…fcb2backed Movistar KOI71c2,034$1,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.053357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Natus Vincere43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86044047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Movistar KOI57c1,845$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.351,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed Natus Vincere13c1,784$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.1148157.6%277 W · 204 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd5f…8a9bbacked Movistar KOI72c1,719$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.911950.4%60 W · 59 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Movistar KOI63c1,612$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.361,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere25c1,565$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.9485442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere29c1,519$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.442,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Movistar KOI56c1,462$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.271,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Movistar KOI57c1,410$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.42,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere40c1,324$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.091,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Movistar KOI60c1,288$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.6245344.6%202 W · 251 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Movistar KOI56c1,268$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.491,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Natus Vincere11c1,200$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.861,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Natus Vincere42c1,200$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.9932844.2%145 W · 183 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Movistar KOI56c1,100$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48430050.3%151 W · 149 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Movistar KOI60c1,080$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.6937345%168 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Natus Vincere18c1,040$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.4414644.5%65 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf9…5b10backed Natus Vincere42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4206238.7%24 W · 38 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Movistar KOI57c1,000$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.61,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Movistar KOI58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42079653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71c0…13b5backed Movistar KOI57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43021954.3%119 W · 100 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53e7…4704backed Natus Vincere17c989.52$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Movistar KOI56c892$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.481,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Movistar KOI60c817.58$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.6666947.8%320 W · 349 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Movistar KOI57c800$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3441,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Movistar KOI79c750$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15523657.2%135 W · 101 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb24f…c638backed Natus Vincere37c725.13$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27020051.5%103 W · 97 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Natus Vincere42c700$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.3740347.4%191 W · 212 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Movistar KOI57c699.99$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.991,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf540…cc07backed Natus Vincere40c625.75$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25015846.8%74 W · 84 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Movistar KOI70c600$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1801,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked Movistar KOI56c600$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26495847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Movistar KOI57c599.99$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25895951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf459…7a53backed Movistar KOI56c569.82$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.7221655.1%119 W · 97 L+0.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Movistar KOI58c510$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.6739851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d75…cf0bbacked Natus Vincere3c486.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61766.3%11 W · 165 L-0.5wins0.00per pick7cpaid-46.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9c2…f0a4backed Movistar KOI68c483.88$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.885658.9%33 W · 23 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7274…054cbacked Natus Vincere7c445.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed Natus Vincere26c444.2$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11722349.3%110 W · 113 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe124…a7acbacked Movistar KOI78c443.24$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.913100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0563…8b03backed Movistar KOI57c442.98$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.4868443.6%298 W · 386 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Natus Vincere25c432.56$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11085652.2%447 W · 409 L+34.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6eb8…c665backed Movistar KOI58c431.03$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.0333143.8%145 W · 186 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x712c…717bbacked Natus Vincere5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-44.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ce8…63febacked Movistar KOI57c399.98$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.993842.1%16 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Movistar KOI60c365.23$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.7696057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x469d…195cbacked Natus Vincere24c353$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.694325.6%11 W · 32 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4425…12efbacked Natus Vincere30c350$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10516540.6%67 W · 98 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Movistar KOI58c350$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14748143.2%208 W · 273 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c0f…fe01backed Movistar KOI62c348.35$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.5236260.5%219 W · 143 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere26c331.09$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.991,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d51…d971backed Movistar KOI79c304.19$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1967057.5%385 W · 285 L+24.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ad3…4e97backed Movistar KOI56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1327562.7%47 W · 28 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8e…156fbacked Natus Vincere10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015731.2%49 W · 108 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed Movistar KOI56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13242148.2%203 W · 218 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Natus Vincere18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9620550.2%103 W · 102 L+15.4wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked Movistar KOI60c283.33$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.3346552.7%245 W · 220 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed Movistar KOI56c260$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.450547.7%241 W · 264 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1173…1d74backed Movistar KOI59c254.35$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.3533040.3%133 W · 197 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd09f…6dcfbacked Natus Vincere16c250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405844.8%26 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf4e…e3a2backed Natus Vincere8c240$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.44012.5%5 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-52%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed Movistar KOI58c239.85$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.3854944.4%244 W · 305 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd4e…1483backed Natus Vincere42c235.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030155.5%167 W · 134 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a7e…ce6cbacked Natus Vincere5c233.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11205%1 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-67.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed Natus Vincere46c218.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed Natus Vincere25c203.83$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.961,13030%339 W · 791 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x970a…6b89backed Movistar KOI56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8841347.7%197 W · 216 L+23.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf933…8a76backed Natus Vincere31c200$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2e3…f702backed Movistar KOI58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845547.3%26 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Natus Vincere41c196.95$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.721,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7236…c20dbacked Natus Vincere26c193.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5029335.2%103 W · 190 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97d8…597ebacked Natus Vincere7c192.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.771752.9%9 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Movistar KOI56c185.55$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6482352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Movistar KOI64c176.39$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8154054.3%293 W · 247 L+26.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c16…17c4backed Natus Vincere29c172.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-63.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Movistar KOI59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.491,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12bd…8f48backed Natus Vincere43c159.98$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.794531.1%14 W · 31 L-6.9wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-38.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0969…b289backed Movistar KOI57c150$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.539750.1%199 W · 198 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa230…1cdbbacked Natus Vincere44c150$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6626734.5%92 W · 175 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4dbd…4476backed Movistar KOI60c146.19$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.6425853.5%138 W · 120 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Natus Vincere36c142.65$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5165754.5%358 W · 299 L-17.5wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.