CS2 · resolved market

Will Aurora qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58272bef4639cba202c3b5803633f39f45ed71d217fe015bdbd2dff63c4f4eb2

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,361
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,778

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,361 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes	57c	1,773$1,009 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$763.36	364	53.8%196 W · 168 L	-8.0wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7040…81fabacked No	40c	700$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.92	86	14%12 W · 74 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd186…ed6ebacked No	34c	449.99$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+35.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed No	53c	335.78$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.99	1,484	58%861 W · 623 L	+66.1wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x243c…2240backed No	45c	327.78$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.5	20	10%2 W · 18 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92fa…4461backed No	40c	312.5$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Yes	45c	222.73$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.5	1,080	50.9%550 W · 530 L	+38.2wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f47…6cf8backed No	47c	210.66$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.65	102	48%49 W · 53 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No	21c	200$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	57	38.6%22 W · 35 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No	54c	192$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.68	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	53c	192$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.76	266	50.8%135 W · 131 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa8b…f0b0backed No	25c	149.99$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+1.7wins	+0.11per pick	35cpaid	+57.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb373…d97cbacked No	40c	127.45$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.35	583	45.3%264 W · 319 L	-16.6wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ee…801bbacked Yes	73c	116.58$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.94	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	0%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	33c	109$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.58	1,500	9.9%148 W · 1,352 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	66c	101.52$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.52	106	50%53 W · 53 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f6…0ee8backed No	42c	95.24$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-3.1wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd8cd…e77cbacked Yes	59c	84.43$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.43	82	42.7%35 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes	56c	79.99$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.2	882	42.3%373 W · 509 L	-13.0wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6acb…3cd3backed No	55c	72.73$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	94	54.3%51 W · 43 L	+6.0wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86c8…570bbacked No	43c	58.14$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	155	57.4%89 W · 66 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ebd…6dc0backed Yes	49c	51.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.02	137	67.9%93 W · 44 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	65cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f21…8af5backed No	44c	45.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	90	56.7%51 W · 39 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb27f…2c41backed No	44c	44.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.51	127	52.8%67 W · 60 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	66c	32.14$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.93	84	19%16 W · 68 L	-9.5wins	-0.11per pick	30cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3b3a…aaa2backed No	40c	31$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	180	44.4%80 W · 100 L	-7.3wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	26	50%13 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d21…6dfebacked Yes	58c	19.23$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.05	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	-14%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Aurora qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event