Tennis · resolved market
French Open: Musetti vs. Rune
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x588dd3e5b73d1e6028b2ef7f247e7f2aac6e5a530a6dd11ec984b0cb353c7f39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Musettiof Musetti, Rune
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed Musetti | 75c | 4,806$3,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.72 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Musetti | 71c | 2,869$2,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.93 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Rune | 28c | 2,502$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.28 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…c481backed Rune | 20c | 2,344$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.9 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Rune | 35c | 1,992$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1,444 | 48.8%705 W · 739 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Rune | 33c | 1,940$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.2 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Musetti | 64c | 1,786$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.14 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Musetti | 70c | 1,500$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Rune | 32c | 1,349$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.8 | 158 | 32.9%52 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Musetti | 67c | 1,273$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.75 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa31…3b4bbacked Rune | 22c | 1,216$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Musetti | 68c | 1,200$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.73 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Rune | 27c | 1,123$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 134 | 35.1%47 W · 87 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcad…3932backed Rune | 36c | 1,111$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Musetti | 66c | 1,060$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.4 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Musetti | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x288e…9ca7backed Musetti | 66c | 971$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.85 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Rune | 19c | 911$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.44 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6b82backed Rune | 36c | 847$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.87 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e11…9bacbacked Musetti | 65c | 827.22$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.53 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…6a9bbacked Musetti | 77c | 804.83$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.38 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Rune | 35c | 800$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Rune | 34c | 765.88$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.4 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…756dbacked Rune | 23c | 720.83$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Musetti | 68c | 632.35$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.35 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Musetti | 64c | 622.06$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.94 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Rune | 18c | 607.84$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.95 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Musetti | 67c | 600$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Rune | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 231 | 52.4%121 W · 110 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f1…276cbacked Rune | 34c | 479.99$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc48…6dcdbacked Rune | 34c | 447$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.69 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked Musetti | 66c | 417.99$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Rune | 35c | 360.8$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Rune | 4c | 333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Musetti | 66c | 280.26$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.79 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331a…d80ebacked Rune | 36c | 279.1$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343e…04dabacked Musetti | 69c | 268$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Rune | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Rune | 34c | 220.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Rune | 35c | 210$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Rune | 33c | 200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2847…5439backed Musetti | 67c | 175.5$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…ccb8backed Musetti | 65c | 160$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Rune | 34c | 159.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 139 | 34.5%48 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cc…769cbacked Rune | 28c | 158.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7f…7d7fbacked Rune | 30c | 155.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2d…f0d4backed Rune | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Rune | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -13.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Musetti | 67c | 148.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…4036backed Musetti | 78c | 142.58$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf95a…d895backed Musetti | 63c | 139.98$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 189 | 32.3%61 W · 128 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Rune | 30c | 126.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Rune | 35c | 115.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Musetti | 65c | 100.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0e…e56bbacked Rune | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…34b9backed Musetti | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Musetti | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Musetti | 65c | 95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab9…7e40backed Rune | 30c | 85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3124…014bbacked Musetti | 73c | 80.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…6215backed Rune | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7d…4eebbacked Rune | 33c | 76.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x455a…28ebbacked Rune | 20c | 75.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7d…b468backed Musetti | 68c | 69.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Rune | 34c | 65.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Musetti | 68c | 63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 226 | 23.9%54 W · 172 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…dfb9backed Musetti | 65c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa9…1e7bbacked Rune | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5732…9030backed Rune | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ea…b91ebacked Musetti | 76c | 54.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed Musetti | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Rune | 35c | 47.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…2d2ebacked Musetti | 66c | 46.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…a627backed Musetti | 63c | 38.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Musetti | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Musetti | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Musetti | 79c | 22.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Musetti | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ab…790bbacked Musetti | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0e2dbacked Musetti | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.