Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5976d245d9b4371e8ba8e08794586952ead8e3a49ffa5cbeecd24e2d87191216
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 1,013$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 4c | 750.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 75c | 522.44$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.48 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 37c | 511.17$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.04 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 34c | 428$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.75 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 56c | 421.18$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.41 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 365.07$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 322.15$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 315.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 306.2$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.69 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 26c | 301.49$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.64 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 38c | 266.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.13 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed No | 66c | 237.33$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.9 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 46c | 193.07$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.54 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 32c | 182.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.13 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 68c | 178.73$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.76 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 168.8$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.37 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 29c | 165$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.32 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 62c | 162.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8d…f736backed No | 75c | 159.83$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 159.3$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 77c | 156.29$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…89acbacked Yes | 39c | 149.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 147$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 142$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.71 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 23c | 131.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.35 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 51c | 127.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 24c | 125.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.49 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 55c | 116.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 108.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa621…0e64backed Yes | 34c | 103.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 36c | 103.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…7518backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 98.63$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.37 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 72c | 95.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 66c | 94.02$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…af33backed Yes | 75c | 91.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 18c | 89.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 61c | 85.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 63c | 85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 84.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 12c | 84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 83.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 64c | 78.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 78.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 51c | 73.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6b…9f9bbacked Yes | 17c | 73.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 76c | 71.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 16c | 68.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 17c | 67.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed No | 76c | 67.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 73c | 64.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 50c | 63.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 62.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 21c | 58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 63c | 56.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 55.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 73c | 54.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 64c | 52.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 33c | 51.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…f2cdbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 71c | 49.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 63c | 48.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 24c | 44.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 61c | 44.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 71c | 43.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked No | 63c | 43.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 65c | 41.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e9…4a3cbacked Yes | 28c | 41.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 41.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 79c | 40.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 36.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…fceebacked No | 73c | 31.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 78c | 30.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 49c | 30.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 33c | 29.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 58c | 27.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 61c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 49c | 27.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 25.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…d0c5backed No | 66c | 25.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 64c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…dc15backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 20.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.