Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37be17655b5e1978d16673f680f7ebddcaf7842fb0e6959f9ad3045c146afee9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd556…6713backed Yes | 0c | 4,355$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 2,544$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.19 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed No | 80c | 1,400$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.11 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 22c | 1,300$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.39 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 74c | 699.19$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.93 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 604.56$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…3ba1backed Yes | 26c | 576.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 499.32$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 52c | 431.75$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.93 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 396.11$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.53 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 16c | 372$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 20c | 299.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 269.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 242.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 18c | 176.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6b…9f9bbacked No | 65c | 169.05$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 22c | 148.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 80c | 109.93$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 77c | 109.01$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e9…4a3cbacked Yes | 25c | 108.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 100.36$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 48c | 97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 13c | 93.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 92.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 13c | 90.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 88.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 86.85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 24c | 86.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 81.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 14c | 80.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 79.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed No | 67c | 75.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 71.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 66.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 45c | 63.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 21c | 62.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 19c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 59c | 55.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 53c | 51.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…15b0backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 47.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 47c | 47.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked No | 55c | 44.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 58c | 43.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 34.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 37c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85aa…691bbacked No | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8694…7dafbacked No | 68c | 31.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 80c | 30.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed No | 49c | 29.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 52c | 28.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 77c | 28.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 79c | 21.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…3cc3backed No | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 74c | 16.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 77c | 16.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 14.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.