Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1a0691e930b59a10c13494263a3ba4cc56157fb2a9cc0a19e453e281a77ecc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 32c | 2,439$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.9 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 922.5$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 684.01$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.16 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 37c | 613.12$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.26 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 533.72$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.15 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 456.01$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.92 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 386.87$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed No | 69c | 382.37$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.81 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 374.77$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 66c | 343.76$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.49 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 17c | 329.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 64c | 321.36$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.52 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 318.64$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.06 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 38c | 313.73$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.44 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 30c | 303.65$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.21 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 298.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 36c | 264.47$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.51 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 34c | 262.97$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.35 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 37c | 250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa621…0e64backed Yes | 30c | 209.73$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…5ec3backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 183.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 65c | 180.34$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 175.19$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…89acbacked Yes | 46c | 170.74$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 169.3$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8d…f736backed Yes | 33c | 166.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 165.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 157.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 20c | 150.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 68c | 141.5$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 11c | 137.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 36c | 137$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 137$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 53c | 125.66$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 123.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 122.68$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed No | 77c | 114.26$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 67c | 112.43$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 38c | 104.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 71c | 102.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…7325backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 94.61$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 63c | 93.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 93.13$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…af33backed No | 72c | 92.14$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 71c | 90.14$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 66c | 88.47$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd556…6713backed Yes | 31c | 87.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 31c | 86.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 86.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c70…f74dbacked Yes | 32c | 78.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 68c | 78.12$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 31c | 75.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 71.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 71.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 72c | 66.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 63c | 63.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 70c | 63.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 31c | 62.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 63c | 59.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 42c | 59.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 58c | 59.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 42c | 59.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e8…9e72backed Yes | 29c | 58.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 44c | 57.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 32c | 56.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 64c | 56.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 68c | 55.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 71c | 55.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 20c | 54.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 33c | 50.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…15b0backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 68c | 49.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 38c | 49.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 47.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 30c | 45.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 44.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 34c | 44.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 27c | 43.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 43.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 70c | 42.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 31c | 41.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1961…f6b2backed No | 53c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.