TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Toronto FCof Inter Miami CF, Toronto FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$636,404
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$638,525

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $636,404 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x04d5…66d8backed Inter Miami CF54c554,512$300,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300,864.774261.9%26 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+22.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto FC46c243,766$111,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132,448.5612951.2%66 W · 63 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Toronto FC46c57,822$26,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,162.521,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa36f…180bbacked Toronto FC47c31,500$14,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,844.992948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Toronto FC45c25,979$11,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,311.53,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Toronto FC47c24,059$11,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,838.0399340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Toronto FC46c20,302$9,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,992.416250%31 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe954…1ef1backed Toronto FC46c15,144$6,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,177.584245.2%19 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Toronto FC45c14,640$6,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,996.4520043%86 W · 114 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Toronto FC45c14,457$6,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,927.0426345.2%119 W · 144 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Toronto FC47c14,086$6,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,423.8735550.4%179 W · 176 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Toronto FC45c11,111$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,111.111553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6bf…8380backed Toronto FC49c11,024$5,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,642.751485.7%12 W · 2 L+5.6wins+0.40per pick46cpaid+88.8%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Toronto FC46c10,750$4,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,847.611854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Toronto FC45c10,542$4,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,822.2397146.1%448 W · 523 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Toronto FC46c10,362$4,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,589.424348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto FC46c6,130$2,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,315.81,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked Toronto FC49c6,000$2,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0603658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+20.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Inter Miami CF53c6,000$3,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1808845.5%40 W · 48 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Inter Miami CF47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3501656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Toronto FC49c4,081$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.3113347.4%63 W · 70 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Inter Miami CF55c3,640$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,996.842755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Toronto FC48c3,298$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,707.734942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked Inter Miami CF53c3,000$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5753234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-24.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x443b…e8bbbacked Toronto FC49c3,000$1,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5454656.5%26 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Toronto FC48c2,362$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.0555750.1%279 W · 278 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Toronto FC44c2,240$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.452639.5%208 W · 318 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Toronto FC48c2,122$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.0168550.5%346 W · 339 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Toronto FC48c2,098$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,090.9691553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Toronto FC46c2,000$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,09072850.7%369 W · 359 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Toronto FC47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0605147.1%24 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Toronto FC49c2,000$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0308946.1%41 W · 48 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Toronto FC49c1,733$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.3173438.1%280 W · 454 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Toronto FC46c1,630$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.470249.7%349 W · 353 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked Toronto FC47c1,246$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.261346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Inter Miami CF53c1,113$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.8823858%138 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91fe…c1c6backed Toronto FC50c1,112$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.9238246.1%176 W · 206 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d4…23e8backed Inter Miami CF53c1,024$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.751957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa797…dedebacked Toronto FC51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49014657.5%84 W · 62 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Inter Miami CF32c993.78$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.3971443.7%312 W · 402 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Toronto FC45c940$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.4618456.5%104 W · 80 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Toronto FC75c927.68$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.6812751.2%65 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Inter Miami CF53c900$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4778661.6%53 W · 33 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+19.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Toronto FC45c888.89$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.899854.1%53 W · 45 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Toronto FC50c789.68$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.0419172.3%138 W · 53 L+36.8wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+41.7%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed Inter Miami CF51c699.99$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3573751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Toronto FC45c600$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.7310257.8%59 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf851…ef53backed Inter Miami CF57c582.96$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3301233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Toronto FC46c534$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.3642947.1%202 W · 227 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa71d…9854backed Inter Miami CF55c531.57$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.362860.7%17 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x92f5…52a2backed Toronto FC45c513.5$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.097256.9%41 W · 31 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Inter Miami CF51c509.55$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.4498945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Toronto FC44c482.68$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.336247.2%171 W · 191 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa122…c724backed Inter Miami CF35c418.34$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb88…0e4cbacked Inter Miami CF53c373.58$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19840%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1ca3…9613backed Toronto FC68c367.65$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.651050%5 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-32.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed Toronto FC46c327.52$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.863435.3%12 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a55…a82abacked Toronto FC48c312.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.53348.5%16 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Toronto FC48c302.91$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.175050%25 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Toronto FC46c296.25$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.9814957.7%86 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Toronto FC46c287$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.081,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8718…ff8cbacked Inter Miami CF53c283.02$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+53.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02b5…2ff8backed Inter Miami CF54c279.52$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ac6…db45backed Inter Miami CF54c277.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Inter Miami CF30c262.18$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.531,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Toronto FC45c256$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.7513948.9%68 W · 71 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7f…d002backed Toronto FC46c226.96$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.17683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.38per pick45cpaid+83.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5519…f7e1backed Inter Miami CF53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x085d…c89ebacked Inter Miami CF54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5247…ece7backed Inter Miami CF52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed Toronto FC54c195$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.71450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Inter Miami CF50c191.35$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.822841.7%95 W · 133 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Inter Miami CF51c189$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0636646.7%171 W · 195 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Toronto FC44c179.84$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.842748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Toronto FC44c147.72$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.7212146.3%56 W · 65 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Toronto FC48c145.31$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.985558.2%32 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Toronto FC45c143.8$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7910848.1%52 W · 56 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90fe…b7b8backed Toronto FC44c138.96$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.821931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x536e…4fd5backed Inter Miami CF54c138.56$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.821241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Toronto FC51c131.7$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.6435247.7%168 W · 184 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a41…f527backed Inter Miami CF55c131.57$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.362055%11 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Toronto FC46c128$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.1227047%127 W · 143 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Toronto FC44c125$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7010450%52 W · 52 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed Toronto FC46c123.69$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.754050%20 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbdf…b8a0backed Toronto FC45c119.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda6f…1e46backed Toronto FC48c110.29$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.354555.6%25 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Toronto FC46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.712551.2%64 W · 61 L+9.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x23b4…48dabacked Toronto FC47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd577…c012backed Inter Miami CF55c105.26$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.893262.5%20 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68aa…0f92backed Inter Miami CF54c103.7$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Toronto FC48c101.48$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.779654.2%52 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto FC51c100.74$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.741,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Toronto FC46c100.01$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0120449%100 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2613…12bdbacked Inter Miami CF54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541910.5%2 W · 17 L-4.9wins-0.26per pick36cpaid-77.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd0fb…8092backed Inter Miami CF52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527634.2%26 W · 50 L-8.4wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-27.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x173e…9ff4backed Toronto FC50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9a9…68b6backed Toronto FC47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Toronto FC43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b25…7a69backed Toronto FC44c98$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.88862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fd4…8cc6backed Inter Miami CF54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.