TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Spirit, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$587,927
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$646,033

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $587,927 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 297 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x63a5…8e33backed Spirit33c286,933$96,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,007.983438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Team Falcons66c183,036$120,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,232.222049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Team Falcons67c100,000$67,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,00011655.2%64 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Spirit55c31,517$17,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,245.8476657.8%443 W · 323 L+3.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Spirit34c28,313$9,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,603.528552.9%45 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Team Falcons69c12,000$8,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,72012653.2%67 W · 59 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Falcons55c11,984$6,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,367.739248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Falcons66c9,394$6,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,196.941,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons63c9,353$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,452.833,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons58c7,935$4,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3131,06049%519 W · 541 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Team Falcons79c7,670$6,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,642.4449646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Falcons55c5,938$3,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,652.3489546.8%419 W · 476 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons61c5,711$3,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,230.841,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93f6…4814backed Spirit50c5,489$2,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,744.36126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.9wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-31%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Falcons50c5,017$2,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,509.9582143%353 W · 468 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab35…60f6backed Spirit3c5,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505534.5%19 W · 36 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons75c3,908$2,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.332,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Falcons60c3,785$2,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.8687847.9%421 W · 457 L+16.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Falcons63c3,480$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,280.482,09241.6%871 W · 1,221 L-50.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Spirit39c3,448$1,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,337.696,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked Team Falcons68c3,367$2,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,088.6240070.8%283 W · 117 L+39.1wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed Spirit28c3,000$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.9933452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x059e…54d1backed Team Falcons74c2,719$2,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.395955.9%33 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick59cpaid+5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Team Falcons45c2,703$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,477.8832425.3%82 W · 242 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x421e…1e47backed Spirit37c2,609$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.549023.3%21 W · 69 L-9.4wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-32.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Spirit46c2,609$1,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.2655343.2%239 W · 314 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked Spirit66c2,237$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.9519355.4%107 W · 86 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Spirit15c2,198$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.2261228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Spirit68c2,019$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,373.121,17854.5%642 W · 536 L-36.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked Team Falcons47c2,017$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,068.7829235.6%104 W · 188 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed Team Falcons68c2,000$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64037157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Falcons65c1,974$1,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.422,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Falcons50c1,940$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.0946749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7193…ae51backed Team Falcons55c1,800$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.8129858.4%174 W · 124 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Team Falcons63c1,696$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.1317148%82 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Falcons57c1,668$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.721,26346.9%592 W · 671 L+18.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Spirit51c1,664$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.683,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Team Falcons45c1,612$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.4275545.6%344 W · 411 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Team Falcons66c1,542$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.0640140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Team Falcons41c1,391$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.1728443.7%124 W · 160 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecee…a577backed Spirit30c1,339$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.578226.8%22 W · 60 L-7.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-39.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked Team Falcons79c1,316$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.1878963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Spirit50c1,300$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.1151252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked Spirit52c1,242$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.7527658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Spirit47c1,150$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.854,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Spirit51c1,108$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.4797240.7%396 W · 576 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1c9…131cbacked Spirit21c1,057$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.186137.7%23 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Spirit47c1,054$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.724,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Team Falcons47c1,040$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.2733232.2%107 W · 225 L-0.8wins0.00per pick32cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Spirit1c1,005$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.270423.9%168 W · 536 L+2.7wins0.00per pick23cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56bd…e58dbacked Spirit51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51015857.6%91 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Team Falcons39c1,000$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61045455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe169…4653backed Spirit53c999.99$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.9911253.6%60 W · 52 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb12b…5a89backed Spirit45c999.99$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.996168.9%42 W · 19 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed Spirit44c985.28$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.3813238.6%51 W · 81 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Team Falcons50c969.74$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.1353545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Falcons52c952.62$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.9281751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd63…cf21backed Team Falcons54c932.1$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.35425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-53.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Spirit54c902.11$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.1737445.7%171 W · 203 L-29.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Falcons61c890.16$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.641,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x135f…528cbacked Team Falcons36c889.86$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.598232.9%27 W · 55 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36b9…bdf4backed Spirit13c888$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.446036.7%22 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed Team Falcons49c887.64$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.742751.5%220 W · 207 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed Team Falcons49c848.86$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.978032.5%26 W · 54 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bd1…3f34backed Team Falcons49c833.41$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.374355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x09a0…dc24backed Team Falcons46c827.78$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4472835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Falcons38c757.99$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.283,94936.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L-201.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe757…c161backed Spirit31c746.4$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.381936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9959…c137backed Spirit52c704.38$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.891323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-53.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Spirit36c690.63$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.9539553.7%212 W · 183 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf5…8483backed Team Falcons74c665.02$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.9911061.8%68 W · 42 L+0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd0…c5aebacked Spirit2c625$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5924.3%4 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Spirit37c569.55$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.41,37845.2%623 W · 755 L+17.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d56…52b1backed Spirit15c559.47$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.833050%15 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked Team Falcons35c551.96$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.7817850%89 W · 89 L-0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Spirit61c542.01$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.6313357.1%76 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Spirit48c537.45$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.627,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Team Falcons43c536.02$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.5340853.7%219 W · 189 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5b6…fdefbacked Spirit18c532.29$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5310337.9%39 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87e9…747cbacked Spirit61c522.48$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed Spirit40c516.52$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.7136555.9%204 W · 161 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2487…0ad0backed Spirit56c502.61$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.3660%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6770…5bdfbacked Spirit68c490.97$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.867436.5%27 W · 47 L-8.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-39.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Team Falcons49c488.48$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.0640950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfaf…9206backed Team Falcons50c485$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.521246.2%98 W · 114 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab8b…87acbacked Spirit51c481.49$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.5611644.8%52 W · 64 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Team Falcons36c479.95$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.5662137.7%234 W · 387 L-23.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Team Falcons62c464.03$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.1584937.8%321 W · 528 L-20.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5792…9faebacked Spirit66c459.22$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.09540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4de…0da4backed Spirit66c445.27$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.8833960.8%206 W · 133 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed Spirit14c415.4$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.155232.4%179 W · 373 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e75…0dd7backed Team Falcons66c414.22$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.581250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed Team Falcons47c402.54$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.5336749.3%181 W · 186 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd752…85d4backed Spirit21c400$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8536837.5%138 W · 230 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Falcons54c396.43$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.282,45644.5%1,093 W · 1,363 L-67.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55ab…40e8backed Team Falcons49c395.32$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.4415134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1ca…fb01backed Team Falcons44c387.1$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.972035%7 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd8a…f782backed Spirit58c379.26$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Spirit30c363.88$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.865,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Spirit51c362.4$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.821,08950.9%554 W · 535 L+38.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.