South American Leagues · resolved market

Club Necaxa vs. Club León FC: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f2132512138a2045a6cf58821c7a158481081a2137901e2aafe00d22a1b927b

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Aug 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $76,027
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $80,308

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,027 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Over	7c	11,381$771 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$771.23	5,821	45.4%2,642 W · 3,179 L	+97.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	26c	8,521$2,245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,244.67	1,323	42.8%566 W · 757 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under	72c	7,486$5,426 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,059.7	2,598	39.3%1,022 W · 1,576 L	-26.8wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under	67c	7,354$4,895 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,458.66	2,365	34.5%817 W · 1,548 L	-30.7wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over	9c	4,964$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465.03	595	39.7%236 W · 359 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under	69c	4,680$3,217 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,463.02	217	52.1%113 W · 104 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over	29c	3,000$870 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$870	359	46.8%168 W · 191 L	+16.3wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15e9…26bebacked Over	33c	3,000$987 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$987.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	69c	2,409$1,662 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$747.48	8,175	48.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L	+27.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	51c	2,369$1,208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,207.56	3,807	38.4%1,463 W · 2,344 L	-29.0wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	30c	2,258$679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$679.11	2,004	51.3%1,028 W · 976 L	+41.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa700…102bbacked Over	1c	2,020$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.2	107	18.7%20 W · 87 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over	26c	2,005$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$524.57	1,502	45.9%690 W · 812 L	-18.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over	12c	1,984$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.16	828	34.5%286 W · 542 L	-17.5wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over	26c	1,782$468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$467.87	752	40.8%307 W · 445 L	-17.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	21c	1,298$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.69	262	35.9%94 W · 168 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53de…409abacked Under	54c	1,107$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$506.53	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd202…1ef5backed Over	57c	817.66$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466.07	108	27.8%30 W · 78 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x156e…cf6fbacked Over	37c	770.26$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285	40	45%18 W · 22 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	12c	734.67$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.52	517	50.7%262 W · 255 L	+28.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over	20c	659.2$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.84	192	34.9%67 W · 125 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under	58c	654.29$380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$274.29	220	49.1%108 W · 112 L	-8.0wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f3d…d65dbacked Under	74c	570.54$421 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149.54	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over	10c	533.55$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.66	1,055	49.3%520 W · 535 L	+14.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa1…1ea8backed Over	19c	500$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	83	37.3%31 W · 52 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under	68c	499.99$340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160	40	60%24 W · 16 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddb3…5fe5backed Under	76c	413.24$314 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.21	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over	19c	404.99$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.06	875	21.3%186 W · 689 L	-83.4wins	-0.10per pick	31cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3824…e756backed Under	50c	390.82$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$195.51	53	56.6%30 W · 23 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed Over	31c	381.6$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.12	242	37.6%91 W · 151 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a3d…4d49backed Under	79c	375$296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.75	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2afc…317abacked Over	26c	365.38$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over	30c	333.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	47	38.3%18 W · 29 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8152…5b51backed Under	59c	327.75$193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.65	131	49.6%65 W · 66 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under	70c	321$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.77	517	35.4%183 W · 334 L	-4.6wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf5…e71cbacked Over	47c	212.77$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+3.9wins	+0.14per pick	47cpaid	+36%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Over	31c	211.9$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.49	89	30.3%27 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc39…398abacked Over	20c	200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Over	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	782	51%399 W · 383 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over	44c	125.04$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.45	1,557	45.1%702 W · 855 L	+19.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over	32c	124.7$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	1,271	56%712 W · 559 L	+71.8wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf423…31c4backed Under	48c	120$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.64	50	54%27 W · 23 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Under	72c	119.91$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.82	190	51.1%97 W · 93 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under	70c	95.23$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.57	180	50%90 W · 90 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Under	70c	92.57$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.63	443	61.6%273 W · 170 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	30c	81.82$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.55	1,484	37.3%554 W · 930 L	+3.6wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ee0…4078backed Under	79c	75.95$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.95	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	78cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Under	69c	75.01$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.45	701	53.2%373 W · 328 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over	30c	74.47$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.34	323	35.9%116 W · 207 L	-11.9wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-12%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd355…e402backed Over	26c	72.87$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5981…3934backed Over	24c	71.58$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.18	151	41.1%62 W · 89 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Under	68c	70.67$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.3	605	56.4%341 W · 264 L	+12.0wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Over	28c	68.67$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.23	290	51.7%150 W · 140 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0464…67dabacked Under	61c	67.33$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.56	143	55.2%79 W · 64 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under	70c	67.1$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.15	960	55.7%535 W · 425 L	+30.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Over	28c	62.81$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.59	343	41.1%141 W · 202 L	-8.9wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over	31c	61.93$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.04	718	36.8%264 W · 454 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92f5…52a2backed Under	69c	61.14$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.71	223	49.3%110 W · 113 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcbb…07d9backed Under	72c	52.76$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.62	155	65.8%102 W · 53 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	65cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	68c	50.76$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.24	1,324	50.1%663 W · 661 L	-14.5wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd819…2d80backed Under	69c	50$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	153	63.4%97 W · 56 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Over	32c	49.5$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.08	505	46.7%236 W · 269 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…bf6cbacked Under	60c	48.9$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.35	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+2.8wins	+0.18per pick	55cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xabd9…dc3abacked Over	32c	44.12$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.12	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+3.2wins	+0.12per pick	42cpaid	+392.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over	51c	44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.44	240	45%108 W · 132 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae3b…e06ebacked Under	48c	36.52$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.99	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Over	45c	36$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.26	542	45.4%246 W · 296 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under	71c	35.1$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.18	271	65.7%178 W · 93 L	+13.6wins	+0.05per pick	61cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	65c	32.02$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.34	2,175	43.6%948 W · 1,227 L	-56.2wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Under	72c	30$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	742	58.5%434 W · 308 L	+29.1wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb4c…612bbacked Under	67c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.9	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Under	68c	28.36$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.08	98	55.1%54 W · 44 L	+7.7wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd97…ae50backed Under	68c	21.89$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.92	51	64.7%33 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	67cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x08f3…f168backed Under	70c	20.93$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.23	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d01…0f69backed Under	73c	20.55$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.55	5	60%3 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under	72c	20.09$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.7	657	61.3%403 W · 254 L	+22.7wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79fd…78cebacked Under	57c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.53	178	52.8%94 W · 84 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked Under	78c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.4	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed Under	69c	17.13$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.39	94	48.9%46 W · 48 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37b0…799fbacked Under	65c	16.98$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.94	150	57.3%86 W · 64 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed Under	69c	16$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.96	224	66.5%149 W · 75 L	+8.7wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Under	76c	14.03$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.33	524	43.3%227 W · 297 L	-7.0wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Club Necaxa vs. Club León FC: O/U 3.5this page
Club Necaxa vs. Club León FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Club Necaxa vs. Club León FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Club Necaxa vs. Club León FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Club Necaxa vs. Club León FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Club Necaxa vs. Club León FC: Club León FC O/U 0.5Over won
Club Necaxa vs. Club León FC: Club León FC O/U 1.5Over won
Club Necaxa vs. Club León FC: Club León FC O/U 2.5Under won
Club Necaxa vs. Club León FC: Club Necaxa O/U 0.5Over won
Club Necaxa vs. Club León FC: Club Necaxa O/U 1.5Under won
Club Necaxa vs. Club León FC: Club Necaxa O/U 2.5Under won
Club Necaxa vs. Club León FC: O/U 0.5Over won
Club Necaxa vs. Club León FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Club Necaxa vs. Club León FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Club Necaxa vs. Club León FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Club Necaxa vs. Club León FC: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: Club León FC (-1.5)Club Necaxa won
Spread: Club León FC (-2.5)Club Necaxa won
Spread: Club Necaxa (-1.5)Club León FC won
Spread: Club Necaxa (-2.5)Club León FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Club Necaxa vs. Club León FC: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event