Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zach Dembo be the Democratic Nominee for KY-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x610a87089ae05295733ed3e847102c9c14fc21335b5b5e9a6c8d1bc763b2b03b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 64c | 1,035$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.63 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 73c | 361.02$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.32 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 33c | 360.21$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.67 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 56c | 219.98$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.87 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 207$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 22c | 193.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 27c | 157$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc898…b0f8backed Yes | 75c | 133.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc20f…ab16backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 43c | 94.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 69c | 88.9$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 37c | 87.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 28c | 83.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc3dc…1ba5backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed No | 45c | 57.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e4…d097backed Yes | 71c | 55.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 42c | 51.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df4…86cbbacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 36c | 35.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8093…6e6cbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…9689backed No | 43c | 35.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…41bbbacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…adbdbacked Yes | 73c | 26.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e4…b67bbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 64c | 19.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…76eabacked Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zach Dembo be the Democratic Nominee for KY-06?this page
- Will Cherlynn Stevenson be the Democratic Nominee for KY-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.