TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Vici Gaming, Team Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$315,598
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$379,485

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $315,598 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 230 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Vici Gaming23c56,296$12,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,800.871143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Team Spirit71c17,291$12,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,014.3956955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Spirit72c13,221$9,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,720.941,19759.2%709 W · 488 L+63.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Spirit79c11,405$9,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,359.6828159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked Vici Gaming29c10,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9007236.1%26 W · 46 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Vici Gaming30c8,310$2,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,465.4343344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked Vici Gaming29c8,000$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,36024246.7%113 W · 129 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Team Spirit70c7,777$5,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,299.7711654.3%63 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Spirit72c7,538$5,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,110.0580056%448 W · 352 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2039…2e5fbacked Vici Gaming29c7,005$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Vici Gaming18c5,875$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.7150832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Vici Gaming27c5,539$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,488.5739343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe504…72e7backed Team Spirit74c5,357$3,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,398.652751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Team Spirit71c5,000$3,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,43027153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Team Spirit70c5,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50029348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Vici Gaming26c4,931$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.911,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Team Spirit69c4,848$3,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,504.3735951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Team Spirit69c4,716$3,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,461.9541351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Vici Gaming26c4,453$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.091,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Team Spirit72c4,070$2,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.636248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Vici Gaming22c3,930$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.1568649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Vici Gaming25c3,899$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.3245750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked Team Spirit74c3,789$2,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.198360.2%50 W · 33 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Team Spirit74c3,750$2,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.1877258.5%452 W · 320 L+74.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Vici Gaming2c3,500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6537811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Team Spirit71c3,130$2,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.8313960.4%84 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed Vici Gaming1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30712.8%2 W · 69 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-90.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Vici Gaming29c2,999$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.161,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Vici Gaming22c2,734$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.711,27045.1%573 W · 697 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Vici Gaming30c2,694$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.5131936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed Team Spirit72c2,524$1,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.830667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked Vici Gaming0c2,506$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5137018.9%70 W · 300 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team Spirit73c2,456$1,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.3961256%343 W · 269 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Vici Gaming27c2,249$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.2881029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67b0…89d3backed Team Spirit75c2,200$1,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5591172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Team Spirit71c2,078$1,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.1288539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Vici Gaming24c2,068$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.72,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Vici Gaming29c2,065$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.218356.8%104 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Team Spirit73c2,050$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.531248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Vici Gaming1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Vici Gaming28c2,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.9956542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc7d…8895backed Team Spirit76c1,967$1,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.3528252.5%148 W · 134 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Team Spirit72c1,873$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.6635151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Vici Gaming31c1,783$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.9635637.1%132 W · 224 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Vici Gaming29c1,767$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.4645139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Vici Gaming24c1,748$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.831947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked Team Spirit79c1,561$1,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.6232756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed Team Spirit73c1,543$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.9220949.8%104 W · 105 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x758f…dfb7backed Team Spirit79c1,525$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.934667.9%235 W · 111 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Vici Gaming26c1,495$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.271,15147.8%550 W · 601 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc592…1ccebacked Vici Gaming26c1,470$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.279042.2%38 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Team Spirit74c1,460$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38553758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d0…2101backed Team Spirit72c1,392$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.447054.3%38 W · 32 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc51f…5dc6backed Team Spirit72c1,389$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.8914557.9%84 W · 61 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Spirit74c1,360$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.791,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Vici Gaming30c1,250$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37534442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Vici Gaming28c1,227$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.911,24744.4%554 W · 693 L+17.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed Vici Gaming21c1,183$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.8633453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Vici Gaming28c1,174$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.1550353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed Vici Gaming17c1,148$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.615539.4%61 W · 94 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Vici Gaming30c1,143$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.8158744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Vici Gaming9c1,113$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10036343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Team Spirit70c1,100$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33056852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5789…6407backed Vici Gaming26c1,038$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2704223.8%10 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Team Spirit71c1,034$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.7769644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked Team Spirit72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2808657%49 W · 37 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Vici Gaming27c999.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Vici Gaming27c970.66$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.6950749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4579…dfdfbacked Vici Gaming30c939.08$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2781457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60e…3f04backed Team Spirit69c900$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2796660.6%40 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32c3…5b4ebacked Vici Gaming31c889$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.591735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed Vici Gaming24c885.3$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.0712136.4%44 W · 77 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c9c…e006backed Team Spirit69c866.5$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.3622663.3%143 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Vici Gaming26c839$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.7130155.5%167 W · 134 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa102…6b5bbacked Vici Gaming22c750$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1653847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Vici Gaming30c749.99$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22545457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xabe5…d99abacked Team Spirit72c749.99$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21038649.5%191 W · 195 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b34…e95dbacked Vici Gaming25c749.99$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1855131.4%16 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Vici Gaming29c741.09$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.9294442.3%399 W · 545 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked Team Spirit72c700$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19627060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bc1…c26bbacked Vici Gaming20c692.08$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8627…cb74backed Team Spirit67c681.14$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.783868.4%26 W · 12 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Team Spirit74c673.8$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.847457.4%272 W · 202 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Team Spirit76c639.1$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.117251.2%88 W · 84 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Team Spirit72c624.99$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17517757.6%102 W · 75 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Team Spirit71c599.99$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.588166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6fa5…05bbbacked Team Spirit75c579.29$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.7513359.4%79 W · 54 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Vici Gaming26c576.91$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15049952.9%264 W · 235 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf6f…9f0abacked Team Spirit70c564.29$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.2916139.8%64 W · 97 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Spirit73c561.25$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.1333850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a53…dfefbacked Team Spirit73c550.21$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.216149.2%30 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1b…de56backed Vici Gaming27c512.79$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9815338.6%59 W · 94 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83c3…f740backed Vici Gaming23c510.96$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.874025%10 W · 30 L-4.8wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-61.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed Team Spirit70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15018143.6%79 W · 102 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Vici Gaming23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11513635.3%48 W · 88 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0cc…c8ddbacked Vici Gaming2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101177.7%9 W · 108 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a0…eabbbacked Vici Gaming21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1057728.6%22 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb758…4699backed Vici Gaming21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1054240.5%17 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed Team Spirit69c499.99$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15514646.6%68 W · 78 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88fa…b50bbacked Vici Gaming7c485.71$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346237.1%23 W · 39 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.