TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Manchester United win on 2025-02-16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$245,941
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$240,776

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,941 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1de8…4115backed No68c100,000$68,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb35d…92a0backed Yes32c100,000$32,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,000.4630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9eb2…c8bfbacked Yes34c29,869$10,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,149.452433.3%8 W · 16 L-5.1wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-43.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked No66c20,386$13,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,931.29754.6%53 W · 44 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5f…bf45backed Yes31c10,714$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3009235.9%33 W · 59 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes23c7,568$1,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,751.225829.3%17 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-38.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3503…b8babacked No68c6,771$4,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.582259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed No66c6,299$4,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,111.6714659.6%87 W · 59 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xacb4…7595backed Yes30c6,260$1,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,877.95747.4%27 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40e3…0787backed Yes15c5,157$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.0714732.7%48 W · 99 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked No66c3,431$2,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.4724566.1%162 W · 83 L+24.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x36a6…52c7backed Yes32c3,267$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.371711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-53.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes34c3,050$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03768026.3%179 W · 501 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x658a…b117backed Yes33c3,030$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37d8…b6ddbacked Yes34c2,921$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011548.7%56 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked No78c2,899$2,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.3438645.3%175 W · 211 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1875…eb5ebacked Yes7c2,252$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.735429.6%16 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked Yes31c2,222$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.0517837.6%67 W · 111 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked No67c2,200$1,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.0113547.4%64 W · 71 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No66c2,144$1,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.3879650.8%404 W · 392 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fa1…591abacked Yes32c1,998$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.413119.4%6 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-64.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa075…09fdbacked Yes33c1,828$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.164637%17 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcef7…e7d7backed No75c1,730$1,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.1436954.5%201 W · 168 L+50.1wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+91.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No67c1,685$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.1590751.3%465 W · 442 L-1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes23c1,639$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.0479639.6%315 W · 481 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed No66c1,500$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.9816660.8%101 W · 65 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa10d…acc6backed No66c1,390$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.551250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb701…7cf6backed Yes33c1,258$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41722932.3%74 W · 155 L-0.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5d2…317bbacked No67c1,241$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.735444.4%24 W · 30 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-32.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes26c1,148$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30018433.7%62 W · 122 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf00f…711abacked No67c1,142$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.85650%28 W · 28 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd452…03e0backed No70c1,029$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.15944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick65cpaid-35.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No66c1,004$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.3283459.4%495 W · 339 L+25.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf40…1bd2backed No67c999.94$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.982650%13 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad01…0400backed No71c997$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.161369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.25per pick45cpaid+93.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8da2…50cebacked Yes1c953.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00e2…d56abacked No65c900$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3152733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd0…6f8cbacked Yes32c874.63$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.88850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes35c863.89$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30014156.7%80 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf25…224cbacked No69c845.6$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.852040%8 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e0a…5e93backed Yes21c823.56$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3510…2492backed No73c814$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.931656.3%9 W · 7 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+68.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Yes34c797.06$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.5312037.5%45 W · 75 L-15.8wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-30.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x763f…81e9backed No68c735.25$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.282653.8%14 W · 12 L-4.4wins-0.17per pick71cpaid-25.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0560…d77dbacked Yes32c728.21$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.912744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2dd…e1b2backed No69c724.64$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed No67c676$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.4481559%481 W · 334 L+32.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Yes15c671.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10029044.8%130 W · 160 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed Yes17c634.86$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.938149.4%40 W · 41 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+28.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x722c…515fbacked Yes34c600$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2043243.8%14 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd88…1ca6backed No70c561.57$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.386854.4%37 W · 31 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6834…2bd2backed No73c529.88$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.122955.2%16 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No71c528.73$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.331855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd45…3dd4backed Yes13c526.6$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes10c521.66$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0266031.2%206 W · 454 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No65c513$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.035635.7%20 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa822…64e6backed Yes32c507.73$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.471735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8175…e4b8backed Yes32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x221f…6be8backed Yes32c499.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1605536.4%20 W · 35 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes12c499.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6040640.9%166 W · 240 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Yes32c484.99$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.3640135.2%141 W · 260 L-0.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x420b…c128backed Yes23c436.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.64926.5%13 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+12.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa970…c980backed No67c402.99$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.99475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8815…e147backed Yes31c402.57$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.83345.5%15 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f84…be09backed Yes20c402.1$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.42944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed No67c381.12$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.9865557.7%378 W · 277 L+26.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25eb…8ce7backed No63c361.96$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.9317447.7%83 W · 91 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc20c…fa4bbacked No69c345.05$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.971752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68fa…c900backed No67c343.28$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.28450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b7…520dbacked No69c304.35$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.3515636.5%57 W · 99 L-11.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d72…c356backed Yes32c300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9614049.3%69 W · 71 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdba…3e7abacked Yes4c299.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-72.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes35c281.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011342.5%48 W · 65 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb474…a4bcbacked No67c278.06$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.661877.8%14 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick61cpaid+23.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce62…73d5backed Yes16c274.44$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455032%16 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x330b…69f1backed Yes37c271$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2720447.1%96 W · 108 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e01…7135backed No70c265.71$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.713100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d4…2f06backed Yes16c253.6$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.511353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes32c250$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803534.3%12 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+22.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6109…8a3ebacked Yes32c249.97$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.99560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+74.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b14…d18cbacked Yes32c221.63$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.925633.9%19 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-29.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd47…8277backed Yes24c207.08$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.599949.5%49 W · 50 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5327…3b80backed Yes33c203.28$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.135740.4%23 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4374…1ddabacked Yes26c200$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5130%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes33c199.98$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8915726.8%42 W · 115 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x257c…49aabacked Yes33c181.82$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-59.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb43c…d43bbacked Yes17c180$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.64055%22 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x630c…1230backed Yes32c167.58$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6310333%34 W · 69 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe121…9f3bbacked Yes31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501233.3%4 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2032737.6%123 W · 204 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2798…3d88backed Yes33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509436.2%34 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e97…b339backed No67c149.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.53145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e7…35b1backed Yes31c145.16$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456944.9%31 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0102…e4d2backed No70c140$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422676.9%20 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3deb…b137backed Yes15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92be…d717backed No70c129.06$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.727252.8%38 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed No70c128.6$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5832736.4%119 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb30c…7ab2backed No67c126.87$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.872360.9%14 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4633…60c1backed Yes34c126.26$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe06c…62aebacked Yes32c126.1$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409355.9%52 W · 41 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.