NBA · resolved market
Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 19.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x697c130b0253dc029fe7b69fb8d2b6053f4eeb683411f9579850db304240ee32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,449 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 61c | 809.98$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.09 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 44c | 444.28$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.48 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 50c | 442.31$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.81 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 55c | 371.82$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.88 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 47c | 288.21$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.09 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83b0…687ebacked Yes | 48c | 275.55$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.29 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef4e…a79abacked Yes | 39c | 256.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.42 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Yes | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ef…3792backed Yes | 41c | 210.53$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.53 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9b…a5ebbacked Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4729…8cfdbacked Yes | 39c | 179.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.49 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…32c9backed No | 52c | 140.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…1805backed No | 52c | 135.73$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7574…9be2backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 51c | 101.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 146 | 34.9%51 W · 95 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 400 | 53.5%214 W · 186 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed No | 47c | 69.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…c1d3backed No | 62c | 59.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 227 | 74.4%169 W · 58 L | +22.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…ef51backed Yes | 39c | 51.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked No | 52c | 48.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 285 | 36.8%105 W · 180 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked No | 63c | 46.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 377 | 55.2%208 W · 169 L | +23.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 37c | 46.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 48c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…bba5backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07f…08d6backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 64c | 31.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 48c | 28.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes | 48c | 25.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 19.5this page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-3.5)Suns won
- Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Devin Booker: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Devin Booker: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Herbert Jones: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Green: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Green: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Pelicans vs. SunsSuns won
- Pelicans vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Pelicans vs. Suns: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Suns: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Suns: O/U 224.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Suns: O/U 225.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Suns: O/U 226.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Over won
- Royce O'Neale: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Royce O'Neale: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Royce O'Neale: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Saddiq Bey: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Spread: Suns (-4.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Suns (-5.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Suns (-6.5)Pelicans won
- Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Zion Williamson: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.