TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,787
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,213

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,787 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x32ed…f960backed Over58c1,123$648 inWon+$475.052,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Over48c1,042$500 inWon+$541.661,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under48c683.54$331 inLost-$330.861,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under48c586.26$280 inLost-$279.629,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Over52c359.34$187 inWon+$172.4931354.3%170 W · 143 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Under47c282.57$132 inLost-$131.6438942.9%167 W · 222 L-16.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under42c234.36$99 inLost-$99.341,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd3e…6d3fbacked Under57c216.03$122 inLost-$122.493948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeef3…0547backed Over52c194.24$101 inWon+$93.2425550.2%128 W · 127 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Over55c140.77$78 inWon+$62.9217758.2%103 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under43c134.54$58 inLost-$57.855,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3921…db37backed Over57c109.38$62 inWon+$47.046643.9%29 W · 37 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+40.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2f76…9798backed Over56c103.94$58 inWon+$45.5213554.8%74 W · 61 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff6e…21cdbacked Under50c103.06$51 inLost-$51.113754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Over47c87$41 inWon+$45.978639.2%308 W · 478 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over53c78.74$42 inWon+$37.0142853%227 W · 201 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed Under47c70$33 inLost-$32.917747.5%84 W · 93 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over51c66.84$34 inWon+$32.674,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd03d…1b36backed Under49c56.81$28 inLost-$27.83633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-45%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x273f…6080backed Over52c55.36$29 inWon+$26.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf8…e6a5backed Under50c48.02$24 inLost-$24.011154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+57.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3c2…5509backed Under52c43.05$22 inLost-$22.3918444.6%82 W · 102 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Over52c42$22 inWon+$20.1640440.1%162 W · 242 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over55c39.85$22 inWon+$17.9359650.3%300 W · 296 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Over52c39$20 inWon+$18.7280440.3%324 W · 480 L+27.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under45c33.46$15 inLost-$15.061,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7baa…03b7backed Under68c21.81$15 inLost-$14.8333159.2%196 W · 135 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over50c20$10 inWon+$102,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Over53c19.43$10 inWon+$9.1887950.6%445 W · 434 L-16.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Under59c17.89$11 inLost-$10.6114264.8%92 W · 50 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.