TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,884
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,182

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,884 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd106…c79cbacked Under50c6,786$3,393 inWon+$3,393.34,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over50c6,618$3,309 inLost-$3,308.821,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under49c6,573$3,219 inWon+$3,353.841,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cea…b12dbacked Over50c2,008$1,004 inLost-$1,003.776741.8%28 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over58c1,628$942 inLost-$941.642,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b45…d196backed Over50c1,591$795 inLost-$795.412540.8%51 W · 74 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Over51c980.38$500 inLost-$499.991,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Over55c904.79$498 inLost-$497.6417042.4%72 W · 98 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over50c510.79$256 inLost-$255.51,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Under51c411.08$210 inWon+$201.4347651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Over49c299.76$147 inLost-$146.8844252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over51c271.85$139 inLost-$138.642,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under49c271.07$132 inWon+$138.921,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over51c233.95$119 inLost-$119.324,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7312…df72backed Over36c200.9$72 inLost-$72.1210523.8%25 W · 80 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9621…0a73backed Under49c197.84$97 inWon+$100.97448.6%36 W · 38 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd3e…6d3fbacked Over52c192.34$101 inLost-$100.783948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x578a…6f10backed Over53c146.69$78 inLost-$77.741546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9438…3d6abacked Over49c131.48$64 inLost-$64.4238947.6%185 W · 204 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under49c130.8$64 inWon+$66.4989850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Over52c112.06$58 inLost-$58.2717758.2%103 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under46c100$46 inWon+$542,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under50c97$49 inWon+$48.51,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under45c80$36 inWon+$441,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Over62c79.12$49 inLost-$49.2559255.4%328 W · 264 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over47c72.14$34 inLost-$33.913,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Over50c67.9$34 inLost-$33.9546346.4%215 W · 248 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb20f…5737backed Under48c58.76$28 inWon+$30.563647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x191b…824abacked Under53c48.82$26 inWon+$22.955253.8%28 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over52c37.35$19 inLost-$19.4222756.8%129 W · 98 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ae5…bb4abacked Over52c35.15$18 inLost-$18.28988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.4wins+0.38per pick51cpaid+75.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Under51c33.43$17 inWon+$16.3537848.7%184 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f47…6397backed Over43c31$13 inLost-$13.477248.6%35 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over51c30$15 inLost-$15.345251.1%231 W · 221 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under60c28.31$17 inWon+$11.212,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x239d…daebbacked Under50c22.68$11 inWon+$11.3411242.9%48 W · 64 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3da…c91fbacked Under52c20$10 inWon+$9.61283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.30per pick53cpaid+62.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.