NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1daeec1d42060cd4a72730ed1e2a5a054c4ab9f73b2d8de30e4a2e2d829560c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Magic, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x299f…2140backed Celtics | 24c | 3,750$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850.11 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…99ddbacked Magic | 76c | 3,696$2,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,809.07 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Celtics | 23c | 2,446$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,877.13 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Celtics | 61c | 1,565$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.58 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 53c | 1,009$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.81 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Magic | 47c | 848.41$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.75 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Celtics | 24c | 520.23$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.37 | 726 | 48.3%351 W · 375 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Celtics | 57c | 373.44$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.73 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 43c | 370.11$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.35 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…bb1abacked Celtics | 60c | 343.64$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.24 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Celtics | 63c | 311.65$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.13 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Magic | 74c | 273.54$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.55 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Magic | 75c | 271.2$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.64 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Magic | 75c | 270.64$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.66 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf9…dde4backed Magic | 76c | 259.78$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.44 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…8dd3backed Celtics | 15c | 244.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.06 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Celtics | 15c | 222.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.88 | 417 | 53.2%222 W · 195 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Magic | 10c | 208.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…df05backed Magic | 75c | 198.49$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.85 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Magic | 77c | 177.77$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.88 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Celtics | 24c | 175.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.7 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Celtics | 15c | 175.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.8 | 443 | 47.2%209 W · 234 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Celtics | 15c | 175.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.8 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088a…9ee7backed Celtics | 52c | 158.75$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Magic | 30c | 134$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Magic | 25c | 125$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 266 | 39.8%106 W · 160 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Celtics | 36c | 112.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Magic | 66c | 110$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Magic | 76c | 103.37$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Magic | 74c | 99.53$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Magic | 76c | 95.86$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 140 | 61.4%86 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Celtics | 55c | 91.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 528 | 61.9%327 W · 201 L | +32.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Celtics | 29c | 81.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Magic | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Celtics | 27c | 69.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Magic | 70c | 66.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29ec…4874backed Magic | 78c | 63.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfb…3640backed Celtics | 25c | 55.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Magic | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 312 | 38.5%120 W · 192 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Magic | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d36…f4cbbacked Celtics | 25c | 48.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…4d52backed Celtics | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 46cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Magic | 77c | 38.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Magic | 45c | 37.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 360 | 51.7%186 W · 174 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb510…762bbacked Magic | 73c | 30.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Magic | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a9…1df3backed Magic | 75c | 29.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Magic | 77c | 27.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…b2fcbacked Magic | 75c | 25.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Magic | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Magic | 45c | 23.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Magic | 45c | 23.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…03d1backed Celtics | 52c | 22.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x392f…4d67backed Magic | 75c | 22.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fe…068ebacked Magic | 76c | 22.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda95…34f0backed Magic | 75c | 21.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89fe…c0a0backed Magic | 75c | 21.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Magic | 76c | 20.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 443 | 45.1%200 W · 243 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…8293backed Magic | 75c | 18.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…24e5backed Magic | 75c | 15.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b8…ab1fbacked Magic | 75c | 14.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46be…9ce1backed Magic | 75c | 13.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-6.5)Magic won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-7.5)Magic won
- Magic vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Magic vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5Under won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5Under won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-10.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-11.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-12.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-14.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-15.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Celtics won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.