TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,869
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,200

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,869 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafaf…1635backed Over57c1,332$757 inWon+$575.391,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Over70c1,312$918 inWon+$393.5917042.4%72 W · 98 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd69d…fe68backed Under1c1,091$12 inLost-$12.17316.4%12 W · 61 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+1,317.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Under51c1,007$513 inLost-$513.3962744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under50c836.23$415 inLost-$415.351,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6bd…3096backed Over49c803.22$394 inWon+$409.647852.6%41 W · 37 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under39c703.26$274 inLost-$273.932,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb8…2f90backed Over48c486.36$232 inWon+$253.888844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over76c479.11$363 inWon+$115.852,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under51c460.02$232 inLost-$232.4568838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Over59c363.95$215 inWon+$149.3695452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Under13c268.67$34 inLost-$34.3614438.9%56 W · 88 L+32.5wins+0.23per pick16cpaid+228.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under46c217.92$100 inLost-$100.241,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff6e…21cdbacked Over54c205.01$110 inWon+$95.333754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over53c193.87$104 inWon+$90.194,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under41c181.4$75 inLost-$75.29,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under44c116.7$52 inLost-$51.841,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under49c96.94$48 inLost-$47.52,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over54c91.88$50 inWon+$42.271,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b5…2d74backed Over52c68.41$36 inWon+$32.846543.1%28 W · 37 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb20f…5737backed Under42c67.06$28 inLost-$28.173647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Under44c53.05$23 inLost-$23.3481349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd3e…6d3fbacked Under44c38.86$17 inLost-$17.213948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1ee…0f22backed Under47c36.79$17 inLost-$17.2938736.4%141 W · 246 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11fc…c546backed Over56c34.42$19 inWon+$15.14633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-47%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3c2…5509backed Under39c33.79$13 inLost-$13.1818444.6%82 W · 102 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7baa…03b7backed Under39c33.79$13 inLost-$13.1833159.2%196 W · 135 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bfd…f319backed Under46c30$14 inLost-$13.811143.2%48 W · 63 L-9.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f47…6397backed Over64c29.35$19 inWon+$10.577248.6%35 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over62c25.5$16 inWon+$9.691,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c04…2c55backed Over49c24.24$12 inWon+$12.364942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Over55c24.21$13 inWon+$10.9637753.8%203 W · 174 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over58c21.74$13 inWon+$9.132,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Over52c19.99$10 inWon+$9.696956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.