NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddb0676a5f0466ef5471d14d3b83f8655bae63c64e8312eaed89ab268aee2ff5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Magic, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Celtics | 19c | 2,627$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,117.76 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 61c | 2,569$1,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,568.19 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Celtics | 37c | 2,491$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,569.5 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Celtics | 40c | 1,249$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.57 | 529 | 51.2%271 W · 258 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Celtics | 64c | 989.83$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.37 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Celtics | 18c | 554.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.99 | 726 | 48.3%351 W · 375 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Magic | 75c | 488.63$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.65 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Magic | 73c | 316.84$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.29 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Magic | 67c | 284.21$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.28 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Magic | 64c | 229.04$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.38 | 376 | 47.3%178 W · 198 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Magic | 31c | 148.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Magic | 24c | 115$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Celtics | 24c | 99.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Magic | 63c | 81.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 275 | 53.5%147 W · 128 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Celtics | 19c | 79.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Magic | 48c | 72.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Celtics | 56c | 61.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 528 | 61.9%327 W · 201 L | +32.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Magic | 79c | 59.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Celtics | 19c | 59.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Magic | 45c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Magic | 64c | 54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 160 | 48.8%78 W · 82 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Celtics | 19c | 52.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 160 | 20%32 W · 128 L | -27.0wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Magic | 65c | 50.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Magic | 65c | 50.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Magic | 63c | 46.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -12.6wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Magic | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x569d…6b18backed Magic | 60c | 32.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Celtics | 49c | 29.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Magic | 79c | 29.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Celtics | 39c | 28.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…f8b1backed Celtics | 49c | 27.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 52cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee12…d93bbacked Celtics | 49c | 26.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Magic | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…035cbacked Celtics | 49c | 25.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cd…4742backed Celtics | 49c | 25.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…65c5backed Magic | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x893b…e888backed Celtics | 49c | 24.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2581…1623backed Magic | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Magic | 79c | 23.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…dd53backed Magic | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa91…7353backed Celtics | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b3…25ccbacked Magic | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba42…ea1cbacked Magic | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…bb8bbacked Magic | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…d7cabacked Celtics | 50c | 21.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe425…2eb0backed Celtics | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55a…5df4backed Celtics | 50c | 20.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdc…7b44backed Magic | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10f…826dbacked Magic | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6c…5b89backed Celtics | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb510…762bbacked Magic | 79c | 14.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-6.5)Magic won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-7.5)Magic won
- Magic vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Magic vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5Under won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5Under won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-10.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-11.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-12.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-14.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-15.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Celtics won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.