NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7d8c6a2eb4bdbb55f418ad88ba9e3ce697a9c10d30fba0c52e8c15a049b8b89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Magic, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x299f…2140backed Celtics | 44c | 3,750$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100.08 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…42bfbacked Magic | 52c | 3,580$1,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,861.56 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ac…ea58backed Magic | 53c | 3,454$1,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Magic | 56c | 3,447$1,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930.13 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Celtics | 47c | 2,060$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.8 | 215 | 49.8%107 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x031a…50b7backed Magic | 58c | 1,632$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.43 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Celtics | 47c | 1,622$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.44 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Celtics | 45c | 1,392$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.33 | 587 | 40%235 W · 352 L | +24.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Celtics | 44c | 941.19$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.21 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Celtics | 45c | 851.51$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.33 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df2…d357backed Magic | 55c | 638.29$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.06 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8c…c7b4backed Magic | 55c | 530.73$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.9 | 356 | 50%178 W · 178 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Magic | 55c | 487.01$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.57 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Celtics | 45c | 265.08$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.79 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…2bd2backed Magic | 55c | 212.29$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.76 | 139 | 56.1%78 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b39…7fbcbacked Magic | 55c | 203.45$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.9 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3e…6d3fbacked Magic | 55c | 190.8$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.94 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Magic | 56c | 183.04$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Magic | 50c | 179.31$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.84 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba77…efa0backed Magic | 54c | 134.19$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Celtics | 46c | 132.46$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Celtics | 45c | 115.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Celtics | 48c | 115.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.97 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…df05backed Magic | 56c | 107.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09e…9368backed Celtics | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Magic | 55c | 97.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2238…e069backed Magic | 50c | 96.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Magic | 49c | 88.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…50c8backed Magic | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 185 | 52.4%97 W · 88 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Magic | 55c | 77.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 378 | 48.7%184 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Celtics | 46c | 68.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Magic | 57c | 68.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac9…f5ddbacked Celtics | 46c | 53.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Magic | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 367 | 49.6%182 W · 185 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Magic | 50c | 49.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Celtics | 47c | 49.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…1455backed Magic | 62c | 47.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Celtics | 48c | 45.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Magic | 53c | 41.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 443 | 45.1%200 W · 243 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Magic | 54c | 41.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5367…dfc1backed Celtics | 46c | 39.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Celtics | 46c | 38.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386b…7d22backed Magic | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Celtics | 78c | 37.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…0b62backed Magic | 56c | 32.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Celtics | 52c | 28.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Celtics | 46c | 27.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 57c | 20.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Magic | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-6.5)Magic won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-7.5)Magic won
- Magic vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Magic vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5Under won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5Under won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-10.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-12.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-14.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-15.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Celtics won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.