TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,014
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,003

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,014 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Under46c6,165$2,809 inLost-$2,808.741,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over55c3,704$2,027 inWon+$1,676.622,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Over52c1,924$1,000 inWon+$924.341,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over53c1,660$877 inWon+$782.282,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over42c1,582$672 inWon+$909.749,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over54c1,534$822 inWon+$711.173,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Under47c1,208$574 inLost-$573.851,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe53c…ee05backed Under49c789.37$387 inLost-$386.794032.5%13 W · 27 L-6.9wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over61c577.58$350 inWon+$227.911,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Under6c360$23 inLost-$22.840440.1%162 W · 242 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76e4…febcbacked Over58c343.91$198 inWon+$145.423348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Over53c299$158 inWon+$140.5331354.3%170 W · 143 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a9…656dbacked Under47c280.78$132 inLost-$131.973828.9%11 W · 27 L-7.6wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-41.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under47c221.29$104 inLost-$104.4689850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d7…d31abacked Under38c218.75$82 inLost-$82.3221640.3%87 W · 129 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd3e…6d3fbacked Under46c198.39$92 inLost-$91.923948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff6e…21cdbacked Over39c114.76$45 inWon+$69.473754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Under43c114.66$49 inLost-$49.31,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over57c111.7$64 inWon+$48.0323549.4%116 W · 119 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Under40c101.81$41 inLost-$41.0937848.7%184 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64d6…aedbbacked Over47c95.14$45 inWon+$49.9710657.5%61 W · 45 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c6c…be63backed Under56c87.03$49 inLost-$48.682254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under49c80$39 inLost-$39.21,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Over55c74$41 inWon+$33.336949.6%183 W · 186 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f47…6397backed Over51c72.35$37 inWon+$35.457248.6%35 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7312…df72backed Over36c66.78$24 inWon+$42.7410523.8%25 W · 80 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb1ee…0f22backed Under48c59.09$28 inLost-$28.2838736.4%141 W · 246 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Over67c51.8$35 inWon+$17.2459255.4%328 W · 264 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under49c50$25 inLost-$24.52,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Under45c49.99$22 inLost-$22.536749.6%182 W · 185 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Under47c46.87$22 inLost-$22.1637753.8%203 W · 174 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over58c43.25$25 inWon+$18.174,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8535…c307backed Over58c34.05$20 inWon+$14.38360.2%50 W · 33 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Over55c30.95$17 inWon+$13.9316951.5%87 W · 82 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Over65c26.46$17 inWon+$9.2416867.3%113 W · 55 L+13.8wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa24f…7c58backed Over53c25.07$13 inWon+$11.8910743%46 W · 61 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over43c25$11 inWon+$14.251,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Over63c22.71$14 inWon+$8.427245.6%124 W · 148 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.