NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cb323ce0a820760468da16ea0c6f18705ce7ba5d470a84e574f9389fd49916f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Magic, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Celtics | 39c | 15,000$5,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,149.95 | 726 | 48.3%351 W · 375 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Celtics | 55c | 10,195$5,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,600.8 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Magic | 61c | 7,702$4,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,697.94 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f9…bcd9backed Magic | 73c | 3,361$2,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,448.44 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Magic | 53c | 3,333$1,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,751.6 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1a…e54ebacked Magic | 61c | 2,642$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611.39 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Magic | 61c | 2,612$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.57 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Magic | 49c | 1,932$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.97 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Magic | 46c | 1,677$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.68 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 45c | 1,131$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.4 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…4004backed Magic | 61c | 1,121$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.62 | 219 | 57.1%125 W · 94 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Celtics | 41c | 1,115$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.04 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…03d4backed Celtics | 32c | 854.06$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.72 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Celtics | 51c | 805.1$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.51 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b4…1483backed Magic | 61c | 800.49$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.3 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Celtics | 39c | 499.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Magic | 13c | 494.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Celtics | 39c | 410$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.1 | 568 | 43.8%249 W · 319 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Magic | 43c | 391.2$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.22 | 688 | 38.5%265 W · 423 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Magic | 59c | 326.69$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.75 | 443 | 45.1%200 W · 243 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Magic | 62c | 326.67$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.04 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Magic | 60c | 317.08$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.25 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e7…0e74backed Magic | 60c | 266.84$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Celtics | 39c | 253.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.2 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…6238backed Celtics | 41c | 252.73$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d19…296ebacked Magic | 61c | 240.97$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.47 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1093…2aa7backed Celtics | 40c | 240.86$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.51 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d36…f4cbbacked Celtics | 40c | 239.58$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.65 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca8…2c1abacked Magic | 64c | 200$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.5 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cee…dfadbacked Magic | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed Magic | 61c | 127.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Magic | 60c | 126.69$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.01 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6b…340bbacked Magic | 61c | 110.36$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…df05backed Magic | 61c | 107.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.53 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Celtics | 39c | 101.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Magic | 58c | 97.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Magic | 12c | 94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Magic | 60c | 93.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Celtics | 54c | 85.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 528 | 61.9%327 W · 201 L | +32.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…7579backed Magic | 61c | 80.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Magic | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d6…aedbbacked Celtics | 38c | 75.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f47…6397backed Magic | 67c | 74.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbe…e45bbacked Celtics | 41c | 70.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Magic | 58c | 64.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Magic | 16c | 61.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 160 | 20%32 W · 128 L | -27.0wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0863…365abacked Magic | 61c | 58.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Celtics | 43c | 56.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Magic | 67c | 52.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Celtics | 38c | 52.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Magic | 60c | 51.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Magic | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Celtics | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Magic | 53c | 48.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 369 | 49.6%183 W · 186 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Celtics | 42c | 48.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…87eabacked Magic | 61c | 48.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 478 | 52.9%253 W · 225 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ad…4c1fbacked Magic | 62c | 41.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Magic | 64c | 39.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 68 | 76.5%52 W · 16 L | +12.8wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc2…09c4backed Celtics | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabd5…e713backed Magic | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…4092backed Magic | 61c | 33.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb700…5a62backed Magic | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 176 | 60.8%107 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc83…215cbacked Magic | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Magic | 46c | 29.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Celtics | 41c | 27.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 271 | 38.7%105 W · 166 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…1a75backed Magic | 69c | 26.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…a40bbacked Celtics | 40c | 26.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 145 | 55.2%80 W · 65 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Magic | 45c | 26.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Celtics | 73c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Magic | 61c | 18.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…03d1backed Celtics | 63c | 16.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-6.5)Magic won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-7.5)Magic won
- Magic vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Magic vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5Over won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5Under won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5Under won
- Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-10.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-11.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-12.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-14.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-15.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Celtics won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.