Fifa International · resolved market
João Félix: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bf985f2930caf02bce9351c1a99b552d88700cf460d591a4dc5c0f11628c627
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 29c | 3,171$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.97 | 210 | 51%107 W · 103 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1a…ba1ebacked No | 71c | 3,000$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 343 | 57.7%198 W · 145 L | +26.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d96…7c16backed No | 62c | 2,018$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.07 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x272b…0a6ebacked Yes | 59c | 1,000$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd421…191cbacked Yes | 2c | 914.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 22.3%31 W · 108 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed No | 70c | 775.99$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.76 | 161 | 65.8%106 W · 55 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 63c | 744.27$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.07 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 62c | 633.74$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.77 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 60c | 550.08$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.54 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 264 | 38.6%102 W · 162 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…b276backed Yes | 37c | 391.89$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccba…4e3cbacked Yes | 40c | 375.68$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.27 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 608 | 21.9%133 W · 475 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 403 | 43.7%176 W · 227 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea4…106ebacked Yes | 35c | 285.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…f6f6backed Yes | 33c | 272.73$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1878…47a9backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 551 | 53%292 W · 259 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d9…5442backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 314 | 35.7%112 W · 202 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Yes | 27c | 263.65$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed Yes | 37c | 250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Yes | 39c | 246.44$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.11 | 197 | 13.7%27 W · 170 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 25c | 217$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 141 | 16.3%23 W · 118 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 470 | 49.4%232 W · 238 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 707 | 50.1%354 W · 353 L | +25.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 41c | 169$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.23 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a51…05adbacked No | 65c | 153.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed No | 69c | 143.68$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 379 | 71.2%270 W · 109 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed No | 60c | 135.68$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…997ebacked Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb687…aee5backed No | 59c | 126.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 70c | 114$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b14…13dcbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8a…093bbacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…5ac4backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 86 | 31.4%27 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b3…d2a0backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99b8…564cbacked Yes | 51c | 68.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…c310backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked No | 73c | 67.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 60c | 62.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ef…c822backed Yes | 45c | 55.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…0f81backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe816…b904backed Yes | 48c | 52.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3a…bdffbacked Yes | 37c | 51.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…df0ebacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Yes | 33c | 50.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe657…b24fbacked Yes | 36c | 49.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…e272backed No | 55c | 49.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 45c | 44.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe673…b3d9backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 56c | 34.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 205 | 61%125 W · 80 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 45c | 33.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 36c | 33.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff2…9791backed Yes | 46c | 32.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 548 | 59.5%326 W · 222 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d1…3a4abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477e…23b3backed No | 68c | 24.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…8275backed No | 80c | 23.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 133 | 64.7%86 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0807…443abacked No | 80c | 15.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 49 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- João Félix: 1+ goalsthis page
- Bernardo Silva: 1+ assistsNo won
- Bernardo Silva: 1+ goalsNo won
- Bernardo Silva: 3+ goalsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assistsYes won
- Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goalsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shotsYes won
- Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assistsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goalsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goalsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shotsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assistsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goalsYes won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ assistsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goalsYes won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goalsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Francisco Conceição: 1+ assistsNo won
- Francisco Conceição: 1+ goalsNo won
- Francisco Conceição: 3+ goalsNo won
- Francisco Conceição: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ goalsNo won
- Gonçalo Guedes: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goalsNo won
- Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ goalsNo won
- Gonçalo Ramos: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- João Félix: 1+ assistsNo won
- João Félix: 2+ assistsNo won
- João Félix: 2+ goalsNo won
- João Félix: 2+ shotsYes won
- João Félix: 3+ goalsNo won
- João Félix: 3+ shotsYes won
- João Félix: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Pedro Neto: 1+ assistsNo won
- Pedro Neto: 1+ goalsNo won
- Pedro Neto: 2+ assistsNo won
- Pedro Neto: 3+ goalsNo won
- Pedro Neto: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Rafael Leão: 1+ goalsYes won
- Rafael Leão: 3+ goalsNo won
- Rafael Leão: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Rúben Neves: 1+ goalsNo won
- Rúben Neves: 2+ goalsNo won
- Rúben Neves: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Samu Costa: 3+ goalsNo won
- Samu Costa: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Trincão: 3+ goalsNo won
- Trincão: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.