TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,139
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,112

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,139 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ae0…7483backed Yes37c2,748$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,724.1410539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes45c1,486$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.893,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No63c958.98$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.442,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes70c597.51$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.1723951%122 W · 117 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a06…d62fbacked No14c513.7$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ed…8a18backed Yes44c500.52$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.2918732.1%60 W · 127 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed No8c458.42$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.211,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No47c436.7$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.925,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8839…ddb5backed No31c422.35$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.7821865.6%143 W · 75 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No34c374.34$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1284,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No64c358$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.121,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No59c337.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.444,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No61c328.5$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.951,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa7d…1968backed No5c323.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick6cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No62c319.8$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.421,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x437f…5b95backed Yes52c310.8$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.5212536.8%46 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No29c303.47$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.291,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9db2…43aabacked Yes64c297.22$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.262642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No37c296.9$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.676,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes38c296$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.524,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfeca…e166backed No56c254.67$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.237156.3%40 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No24c254$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.985,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No64c250$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16036150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes55c247.7$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.7145540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No34c244.78$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No29c236.3$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No58c234.24$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.153,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No54c229.72$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.448,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes46c225.27$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.575,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x884a…2bfcbacked Yes58c219.99$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.353935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No61c218.34$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.723,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34d5…a977backed Yes30c214.99$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.9823030.9%71 W · 159 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes40c212.25$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.9780130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No58c209.52$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.3410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No64c200$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12886949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes50c200$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.3588028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No53c199.99$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.991,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No59c191.28$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.465,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No60c176.7$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.964,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1cc…6171backed Yes70c174.96$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2137942.5%161 W · 218 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes78c174.75$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.453033.3%10 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No52c153.32$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.363,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed No13c152.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4638146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed No9c150$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.572125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes39c148.05$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.312,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No41c145.42$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.217,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3e0b…0020backed No58c139.08$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5738930.3%118 W · 271 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dd7…55a0backed No59c135.54$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8029536.9%109 W · 186 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No28c130.09$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.894,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes47c122.72$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.4434935.2%123 W · 226 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No57c122.69$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7075546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes43c117.08$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.7256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed No19c113.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.34368.3%3 W · 33 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-77.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3910…ba74backed Yes41c106$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5417231.4%54 W · 118 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a6b…6e11backed Yes48c105.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes45c104.44$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.8938633.4%129 W · 257 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes48c104.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5242148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No55c103.52$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3879040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a68…13f0backed Yes45c103.46$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.665549.1%27 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed No64c103.09$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9826744.2%118 W · 149 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes34c99.98$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No49c99.64$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4857948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No58c95.57$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.059,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa5c…a240backed Yes38c90$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1719552.8%103 W · 92 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No17c89.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.752,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No23c88.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.262,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No38c81.94$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8780560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No48c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.417747.5%84 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b8…cccfbacked Yes32c79.91$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.351936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed Yes42c79.66$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9718629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No31c79.25$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.372,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No49c78.96$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7761760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1820…2aa0backed Yes65c76.45$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.457335.6%26 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No24c74.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2382268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No57c70.67$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5585049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes38c65.61$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.614845.8%22 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No20c64.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.791,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa915…879dbacked Yes40c64.48$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.86785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick60cpaid+44.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes40c64.32$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.593,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No47c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.94,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No25c59.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.072,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes42c55.48$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.47,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No54c55.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes46c55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.716937.3%63 W · 106 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No50c54$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2733350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes69c53.26$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.571,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No63c52.09$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.822,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa067…0a3ebacked Yes60c50.21$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.082142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323336.4%12 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18cd…d73cbacked Yes61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2870148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3227056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf722…4e1ebacked Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.52948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf572…0b45backed No48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241225%3 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c4a…31e3backed Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.54654.3%25 W · 21 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109960.6%60 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d42…a046backed No26c49.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.663145.2%14 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3e4…f053backed No48c48.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6618046.1%83 W · 97 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.