Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cbfbf4672604cd40b0068f2d4bd99b72eebe259a06ffa0e9f34c1f38af53244
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 37c | 2,748$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.14 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 1,486$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 958.98$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.44 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 70c | 597.51$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.17 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…d62fbacked No | 14c | 513.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 44c | 500.52$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.29 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 8c | 458.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 436.7$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 31c | 422.35$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.78 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 374.34$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 358$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.12 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 337.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 328.5$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.95 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7d…1968backed No | 5c | 323.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 319.8$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.42 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 52c | 310.8$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.52 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 29c | 303.47$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…43aabacked Yes | 64c | 297.22$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.26 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 296.9$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 38c | 296$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 56c | 254.67$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.23 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 24c | 254$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 64c | 250$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 55c | 247.7$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.71 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 244.78$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 236.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 234.24$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 54c | 229.72$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 225.27$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked Yes | 58c | 219.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.35 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 218.34$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.72 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 30c | 214.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.98 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 40c | 212.25$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.97 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 209.52$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 50c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.35 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 191.28$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 176.7$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 70c | 174.96$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 78c | 174.75$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 153.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 13c | 152.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 39c | 148.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.31 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 145.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed No | 58c | 139.08$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.57 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 59c | 135.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 130.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 47c | 122.72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 57c | 122.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 43c | 117.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.72 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 19c | 113.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 41c | 106$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…6e11backed Yes | 48c | 105.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 45c | 104.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 48c | 104.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 55c | 103.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 45c | 103.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 64c | 103.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 49c | 99.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 95.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 38c | 90$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 17c | 89.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 23c | 88.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 38c | 81.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b8…cccfbacked Yes | 32c | 79.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 42c | 79.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 31c | 79.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 49c | 78.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 65c | 76.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 24c | 74.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 57c | 70.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 38c | 65.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 20c | 64.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa915…879dbacked Yes | 40c | 64.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 40c | 64.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 59.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 55.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 54c | 55.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 46c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 69c | 53.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 52.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa067…0a3ebacked Yes | 60c | 50.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18cd…d73cbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf722…4e1ebacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…0b45backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d42…a046backed No | 26c | 49.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 48.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.