Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3bb3392a54ab720846073ecb1604002b6f833abb9416ea464d88a22bc8f5db5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 938.56$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 22c | 702.36$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.96 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 693.6$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa067…0a3ebacked Yes | 25c | 662.78$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.21 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 15c | 612.25$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.68 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 63c | 576.76$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.92 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 559$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 13c | 558.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 436.7$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 347.24$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.65 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 314.47$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 36c | 309.91$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.29 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 19c | 295$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 37c | 289.91$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.01 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed Yes | 8c | 257.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 255.15$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 238.23$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 235.5$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 30c | 227.29$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 69c | 225.64$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 64c | 214.64$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 214$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 30c | 212.66$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 25c | 203.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 14c | 197.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 38c | 165.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 16c | 154.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 34c | 151.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 151.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked No | 77c | 150.34$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 34c | 146.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 21c | 139.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 132.36$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 24c | 131.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 131$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 128.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 15c | 120.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 61c | 117.08$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 116.36$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…1ccebacked Yes | 28c | 116.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 36c | 113$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b32…638bbacked Yes | 35c | 112.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 37c | 106.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 102.37$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 39c | 100.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…f85dbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…7d70backed No | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 41c | 97.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 93.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 89.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e3…7c16backed Yes | 13c | 84.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 79.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 78c | 77.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 26c | 76.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 31c | 76.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 28c | 74.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 28c | 73.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 73.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 30c | 66.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 66.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 60.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 62c | 59.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081f…bf8fbacked Yes | 36c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 70c | 55.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb62…d173backed Yes | 21c | 55.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed No | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed Yes | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 59c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…0a91backed Yes | 29c | 45.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed Yes | 26c | 45.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 44.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed No | 62c | 42.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 42.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 61c | 41.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 33c | 41.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 30c | 37.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfc…de8fbacked No | 61c | 36.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 70c | 36.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 30c | 36.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 60c | 35.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 69c | 30.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.