MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7414d12db71ff1f08ee407bd32ad72fded1f9c7dfe72209ab43a2ba5ce45e255
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 19,582$10,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,713.02 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 19,524$8,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,590.76 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 13,341$6,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,481.62 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…4198backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 7,790$3,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,427.6 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 6,054$3,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,857.9 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0317…6289backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 5,421$2,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,439.28 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 5,275$2,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,373.75 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 4,656$2,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,188.32 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 3,639$1,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,637.55 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…d81bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 2,900$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 2,636$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.87 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 2,500$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 2,392$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.18 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 1,974$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.95 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 1,928$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.12 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 1,721$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.42 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 1,639$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 1,348$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.28 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 1,342$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.11 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 1,270$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.8 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ff…6c51backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 1,231$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.26 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 1,100$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 264 | 53.8%142 W · 122 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 900$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 754.66$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.63 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 690$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.3 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 686.27$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.27 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 686.27$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.27 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa928…9575backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 682$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 553.42$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.24 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 410$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.4 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 360$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.4 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 359.97$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.52 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 288.87$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.61 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 231.31$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 230$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.3 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 8c | 225$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 221.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 179$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 120$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 111.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 109.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 108$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ac…957dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 74.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 43.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 42.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 39.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 21.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.