TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Minnesota Lynxof Minnesota Lynx, Dallas Wings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$161,706
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$180,180

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,706 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Minnesota Lynx60c10,075$6,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,067.5123245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Dallas Wings10c7,837$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.3210340.8%42 W · 61 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5db…5800backed Minnesota Lynx72c7,624$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,123.963455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Dallas Wings39c6,000$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,339.9927449.6%136 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54ba…04e4backed Dallas Wings34c5,839$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003933.3%13 W · 26 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0570…465ebacked Dallas Wings39c5,811$2,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,266.361338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Dallas Wings0c5,359$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.78960%0 W · 96 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Dallas Wings11c5,198$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.7419428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Dallas Wings14c4,605$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.8234726.5%92 W · 255 L-20.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Dallas Wings17c4,421$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.3799548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Dallas Wings9c4,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36015741.4%65 W · 92 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Minnesota Lynx58c3,864$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,613.9640550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Dallas Wings42c3,163$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3207236.1%26 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Dallas Wings41c2,687$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.3189349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Minnesota Lynx61c2,652$1,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.465100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Dallas Wings23c2,603$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.381,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Dallas Wings39c2,560$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.399354.8%51 W · 42 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Minnesota Lynx68c2,479$1,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.7236750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Dallas Wings7c2,434$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.7674942.3%317 W · 432 L-21.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Minnesota Lynx74c2,313$1,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.4485158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Dallas Wings40c2,083$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.126154.1%33 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Minnesota Lynx57c1,750$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.499139.6%36 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Dallas Wings41c1,346$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.8992248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Dallas Wings42c1,250$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5254020%8 W · 32 L-10.5wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-63.2%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x9767…1a16backed Dallas Wings29c1,204$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3506437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed Dallas Wings37c1,172$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.254829.2%14 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63df…63d1backed Dallas Wings9c1,161$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007638.2%29 W · 47 L+8.2wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+35.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x520d…e474backed Minnesota Lynx62c1,143$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.742875%21 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x911b…344fbacked Minnesota Lynx59c1,067$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.343444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Dallas Wings25c995.59$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.061,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Minnesota Lynx61c841$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.999445.7%43 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dde…5af9backed Dallas Wings12c826.34$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5eb…c512backed Minnesota Lynx61c747.02$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01ee…6ab0backed Minnesota Lynx69c721.41$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff6…d1fdbacked Minnesota Lynx61c660$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.43100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Dallas Wings4c655$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.29568.9%5 W · 51 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Dallas Wings19c559.74$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.110634.9%37 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd654…45c2backed Minnesota Lynx61c550$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.54060%24 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Dallas Wings19c513.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5431847.8%152 W · 166 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…5bdfbacked Minnesota Lynx68c504.34$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.675642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked Dallas Wings41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20510249%50 W · 52 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Minnesota Lynx59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20510337.9%39 W · 64 L+0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Minnesota Lynx75c456.49$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.1830347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Minnesota Lynx64c415.44$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.565149%25 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Dallas Wings3c400$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8557.3%4 W · 51 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Minnesota Lynx73c371.47$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.361042.5%259 W · 351 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ac1…d5a6backed Minnesota Lynx61c333$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.878657%49 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34ca…9de7backed Minnesota Lynx59c313.56$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.561566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Dallas Wings9c309.16$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3734753.9%187 W · 160 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Dallas Wings10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307520%15 W · 60 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Dallas Wings40c299.33$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.7378548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae41…73cfbacked Minnesota Lynx60c299.33$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf39…3394backed Minnesota Lynx60c296.09$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.38366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Dallas Wings23c294.72$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5216633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf903…de2fbacked Dallas Wings25c282.12$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.053243.8%14 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Dallas Wings22c270.48$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6119031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Dallas Wings22c257.45$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3631043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Dallas Wings23c249.56$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3210538.1%40 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba58…28c2backed Minnesota Lynx70c210.61$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.183455.9%19 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Dallas Wings35c208.8$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.919146.2%42 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Dallas Wings29c205$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4525246%116 W · 136 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Dallas Wings15c204.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1441147%193 W · 218 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1c4c…9f95backed Minnesota Lynx59c203.39$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.393036.7%11 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ee4…ed67backed Dallas Wings41c203.03$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.243441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Minnesota Lynx61c202.36$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9220642.7%88 W · 118 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed Dallas Wings39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd73a…0f4ebacked Minnesota Lynx61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Dallas Wings45c194.81$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6615250.7%77 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Dallas Wings21c188.4$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1155255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd981…c309backed Minnesota Lynx59c180$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.82462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Dallas Wings10c172$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8815048%72 W · 78 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Minnesota Lynx60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.673063.3%19 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a51…1e9fbacked Minnesota Lynx60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.671741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Dallas Wings41c153.4$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.897746.8%36 W · 41 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbbb4…0060backed Dallas Wings39c150$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.55341.5%22 W · 31 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Dallas Wings29c148.28$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310345.6%47 W · 56 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Dallas Wings30c143$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0231448.4%152 W · 162 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Dallas Wings29c141.38$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110244.1%45 W · 57 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe611…2970backed Minnesota Lynx76c131.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.06944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Minnesota Lynx70c130$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6123955.2%132 W · 107 L+12.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Dallas Wings8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6182…0633backed Minnesota Lynx61c114.75$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.75650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked Dallas Wings29c113.79$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335246.2%24 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2c8…d506backed Dallas Wings29c103.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Dallas Wings34c103.06$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2514947.7%71 W · 78 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Minnesota Lynx60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4039947.1%188 W · 211 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Minnesota Lynx60c99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.68953.9%48 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Minnesota Lynx75c93.21$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.218860.2%53 W · 35 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Dallas Wings19c92.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9120340.9%83 W · 120 L-16.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Minnesota Lynx58c90$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.432346.7%151 W · 172 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…5273backed Minnesota Lynx61c86.69$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.814146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Minnesota Lynx70c83.2$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1818746%86 W · 101 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Minnesota Lynx61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9722967.7%155 W · 74 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Minnesota Lynx70c79.35$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5911351.3%58 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe107…6db7backed Dallas Wings33c72$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.682867.9%19 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+17.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1435backed Dallas Wings34c69.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.143243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Dallas Wings29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207041.4%29 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Dallas Wings26c64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6437650.3%189 W · 187 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea58…b635backed Dallas Wings19c63.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.144047.5%19 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed Dallas Wings40c62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.812234.4%42 W · 80 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.