TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Joblife (BO1) - LFL Regular Season

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Karmine Corp Blueof Karmine Corp Blue, Joblife
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$215,673
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$269,506

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,673 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe361…ae44backed Joblife17c11,093$1,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,857.9989347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Joblife48c10,564$5,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,084.541,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a86…4998backed Joblife47c8,000$3,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,759.9918429.9%55 W · 129 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked Karmine Corp Blue56c7,500$4,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,316.3453355%293 W · 240 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Joblife48c5,583$2,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,684.751,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa759…1119backed Karmine Corp Blue53c5,582$2,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,623.4911367.3%76 W · 37 L+14.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Joblife50c4,307$2,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,131.9422757.3%130 W · 97 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked Karmine Corp Blue50c3,000$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5101,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Karmine Corp Blue61c2,946$1,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.7744851.8%232 W · 216 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffa1…6340backed Karmine Corp Blue53c2,919$1,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,374.051926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fb8…5a88backed Joblife39c2,786$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.6634255.6%190 W · 152 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Karmine Corp Blue75c2,667$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.672,34140.3%943 W · 1,398 L-61.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…a2cbbacked Joblife35c2,635$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.3924554.3%133 W · 112 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Joblife38c2,582$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.641,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x092b…614ebacked Karmine Corp Blue52c2,293$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.6115644.2%69 W · 87 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf071…04d6backed Joblife22c2,000$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.2513336.8%49 W · 84 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4ac…9722backed Karmine Corp Blue51c2,000$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.199944.4%44 W · 55 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Joblife46c1,837$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.9329447.6%140 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Joblife49c1,721$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.751827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-61.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Karmine Corp Blue55c1,550$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.548143.2%208 W · 273 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a8a…9dfcbacked Joblife37c1,500$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5556732.8%22 W · 45 L-7.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Karmine Corp Blue51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7351,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed Karmine Corp Blue51c1,468$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.4882554.8%452 W · 373 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed Karmine Corp Blue53c1,460$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.0360354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4873…15babacked Karmine Corp Blue57c1,404$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.5117852.8%94 W · 84 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Karmine Corp Blue53c1,354$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.5227957.7%161 W · 118 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed Karmine Corp Blue50c1,350$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67510541.9%44 W · 61 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked Karmine Corp Blue74c1,278$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.8766559.5%396 W · 269 L+72.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Karmine Corp Blue49c1,272$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.21,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Joblife2c1,240$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.561,60617.5%281 W · 1,325 L-245.0wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed Karmine Corp Blue75c1,200$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30058559.7%349 W · 236 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Joblife45c1,177$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.728036.3%29 W · 51 L-13.6wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-37.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xd385…34fbbacked Joblife48c1,150$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.763554.3%19 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Karmine Corp Blue69c1,008$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.213354.1%72 W · 61 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Karmine Corp Blue41c999.99$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5901,20835.8%432 W · 776 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Joblife47c999.99$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4701,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b17…d36dbacked Joblife50c982$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48910834.3%37 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Joblife48c950.25$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.1245338%172 W · 281 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Joblife33c925.04$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.771,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Karmine Corp Blue50c811.16$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.435435.3%125 W · 229 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Karmine Corp Blue64c781.25$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.2523454.7%128 W · 106 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Karmine Corp Blue57c750.99$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.261,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Joblife34c744.66$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.481,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67ba…246cbacked Karmine Corp Blue56c716.06$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.0626551.7%137 W · 128 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Joblife38c700.28$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.962,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Karmine Corp Blue56c688.11$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.7782953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Joblife39c681.67$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.682,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed Karmine Corp Blue75c675.77$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.9462158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7cb…c8dfbacked Joblife50c672.32$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.866744.8%30 W · 37 L-8.5wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-20.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x060d…d746backed Karmine Corp Blue52c661.88$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.873046.7%14 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-8.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa500…39d1backed Joblife49c511$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.3912548.8%61 W · 64 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Joblife48c510.38$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.4644451.8%230 W · 214 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6dd…238bbacked Joblife49c508.52$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25022741%93 W · 134 L+1.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Karmine Corp Blue75c500.01$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1252,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Joblife49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24517339.3%68 W · 105 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9348…6664backed Karmine Corp Blue56c499.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22028859%170 W · 118 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked Joblife51c499.98$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.9961143.5%266 W · 345 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a28…ff8cbacked Karmine Corp Blue57c495.86$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.2212246.7%57 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a02…576dbacked Karmine Corp Blue51c490.2$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.23342.4%14 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Joblife15c478$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.352,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x864f…3ae7backed Joblife18c464.26$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.76744.8%30 W · 37 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Karmine Corp Blue51c459.16$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.9922146.6%103 W · 118 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Joblife18c449.15$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.432,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Joblife48c427$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.966235.5%22 W · 40 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Karmine Corp Blue71c422.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.541,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Karmine Corp Blue75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x41bb…26e8backed Joblife45c381.69$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.7621749.8%108 W · 109 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf9f…998bbacked Joblife43c380$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.43141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Karmine Corp Blue54c380$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.341,05823.5%249 W · 809 L-75.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b2b…d4d3backed Karmine Corp Blue53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3610240.2%41 W · 61 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Joblife59c358$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.5666845.5%304 W · 364 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9227…7cedbacked Karmine Corp Blue42c357.14$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.1455347%260 W · 293 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cd2…648cbacked Joblife29c349.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7895048.5%461 W · 489 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Karmine Corp Blue50c333$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.517943.6%78 W · 101 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Joblife47c327.45$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.929738.7%115 W · 182 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62e2…7b24backed Karmine Corp Blue53c320.75$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.756462.5%40 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Joblife49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14735045.1%158 W · 192 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Karmine Corp Blue55c272.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.7365063.2%411 W · 239 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Joblife45c250$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.596149.9%480 W · 481 L+4.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Joblife21c249.55$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.591,97130.5%601 W · 1,370 L-170.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6455…2604backed Karmine Corp Blue68c245.21$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.3518061.7%111 W · 69 L+15.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3e24…4fabbacked Karmine Corp Blue73c232.67$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6133857.7%195 W · 143 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed Joblife49c231.34$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3619259.9%115 W · 77 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Karmine Corp Blue73c226.72$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.451,54354.8%845 W · 698 L+75.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Joblife11c213$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6382836.4%301 W · 527 L-41.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked Joblife33c212.12$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701,44343.4%626 W · 817 L+105.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d0a…0809backed Joblife45c210$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.653829.4%158 W · 380 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Joblife47c210$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.82,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6f8…7fa1backed Joblife48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10077746.2%359 W · 418 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked Joblife49c200.28$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7614545.5%66 W · 79 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Joblife47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9462649.8%312 W · 314 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f2…aeb7backed Karmine Corp Blue55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9020542.4%87 W · 118 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Joblife45c185.01$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.251,53943.7%673 W · 866 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e5e…0381backed Joblife49c184.76$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5348951.5%252 W · 237 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f5b…315ebacked Karmine Corp Blue54c182.03$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.0510639.6%42 W · 64 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Joblife44c180$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.476028.9%220 W · 540 L-0.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc27f…2a25backed Karmine Corp Blue54c163.41$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.996452.7%508 W · 456 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed Karmine Corp Blue77c161.97$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.678644.2%38 W · 48 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-27.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed Karmine Corp Blue56c160$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.646562.4%290 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Karmine Corp Blue53c145.11$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.266947.8%320 W · 349 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.