Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d31a4289f70ec791327d21344714975ac446c7cf82377889fa2eaa57d671804
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 11c | 2,787$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.42 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 21c | 2,230$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.6 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 1,567$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 76c | 1,290$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.2 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 66c | 884.32$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.84 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 831.86$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.76 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes | 7c | 679$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -69%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 656.09$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.99 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 24c | 568.87$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.35 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 28c | 496.57$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.95 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 422.46$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 400.79$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed No | 69c | 396$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.72 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 77c | 391.53$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 33c | 375.2$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.01 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 368.59$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.57 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 30c | 333.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 29c | 296.33$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 269.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 33c | 260.43$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 60c | 239.12$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.68 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 67c | 230.59$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 29c | 202$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 193.36$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 182.27$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 160.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 157.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 25c | 151.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 33c | 150.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 76c | 146.55$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 55c | 142.1$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.43 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 141.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 76c | 135.26$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 132.27$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ee…4806backed Yes | 30c | 131.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 76c | 131.13$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 127.78$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 126.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 126.33$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed Yes | 40c | 125.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ab…c964backed Yes | 13c | 124.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c53…3145backed Yes | 34c | 121.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 116.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 15c | 116.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 68c | 113.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 112.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 48c | 110.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 66c | 110$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 41c | 109.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 34c | 107.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 66c | 103$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 71c | 81.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 77.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 72c | 68.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 67c | 68.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 16c | 68.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f095backed Yes | 30c | 67.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 72c | 64.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 63.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 62.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…e4f9backed Yes | 20c | 60.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked Yes | 34c | 59.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 58.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701d…d115backed No | 60c | 54.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 60c | 54.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 32c | 52.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 31c | 51.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 30c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 34c | 48.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 33c | 46.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 79c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 77c | 44.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 29c | 43.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 34c | 43.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 69c | 43.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 74c | 42.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…0817backed No | 70c | 42.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 76c | 41.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 50c | 41.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 64c | 41.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 48c | 36.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked Yes | 34c | 34.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 69c | 33.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked Yes | 31c | 32.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 67c | 31.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a63…0e48backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.