Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddf5ba5b5c49d748af7d580a9dd1b130108226eae6564b51a543bbbfa7acd2f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 45c | 906.28$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.02 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 4c | 678.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 55c | 562.29$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.43 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 543.84$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 49c | 513.08$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.82 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 51c | 498.08$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.02 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 430.89$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 31c | 429$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 57c | 395.76$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.58 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 76c | 367.26$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.74 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 353.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.06 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 43c | 350.43$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.43 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 43c | 308.98$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.22 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 299.1$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 290.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 47c | 275.48$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.77 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 33c | 265.06$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.88 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 254.94$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.87 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 245.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 211.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.33 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 9c | 210.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 23c | 200$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 160$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 39c | 146$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 136.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 126.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 34c | 114.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 48c | 110.04$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 110$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 41c | 107.54$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 105.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 105$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 36c | 103.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 100.21$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed Yes | 30c | 98.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.38 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 43c | 97.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 70c | 96.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 67c | 95.19$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 93.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 92.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 57c | 91.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 58c | 90.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 35c | 90.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ac…a769backed Yes | 36c | 86.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 62c | 80.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 79.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 72.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 59c | 67.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 58c | 60.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 37c | 60.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 53c | 58.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 61c | 57.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 26c | 54.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c53…3145backed Yes | 39c | 53.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 60c | 51.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 22c | 50.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 61c | 47.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked Yes | 80c | 47.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 46.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 28c | 45.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 30c | 43.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 66c | 42.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 25c | 42.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 42.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 79c | 41.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 41c | 39.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 40c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 64c | 38.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 58c | 37.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 37.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…af33backed Yes | 78c | 36.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 41c | 36.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 37c | 34.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 65c | 33.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a63…0e48backed No | 60c | 33.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 39c | 32.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…e292backed Yes | 65c | 32.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a1…5e41backed Yes | 39c | 32.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 54c | 31.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 31.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed Yes | 58c | 31.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 59c | 30.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 65c | 30.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 38c | 27.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c70…f74dbacked Yes | 39c | 26.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 60c | 26.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83f4…0cc5backed Yes | 70c | 25.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.