Olympics · resolved market
Women's Group B - Japan vs. Italy
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d7c28ec85133e55e2cc9780ed54758b5bcc2dcc4ad171882554e400994d6749
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Italyof Japan, Italy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x190a…6ae2backed Japan | 41c | 4,887$2,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,003.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Japan | 1c | 3,823$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8f…2999backed Italy | 59c | 3,431$2,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…69fbbacked Japan | 56c | 1,600$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5083…9cbdbacked Italy | 59c | 1,456$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Italy | 44c | 1,261$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…ea3bbacked Japan | 54c | 1,191$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Italy | 42c | 1,056$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Italy | 49c | 984.41$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.69 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0abf…5e1fbacked Italy | 48c | 622.11$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Japan | 53c | 535.96$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.38 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Italy | 46c | 522.71$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7381…5b63backed Japan | 53c | 410.9$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.61 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Japan | 54c | 402$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…561cbacked Japan | 58c | 362$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…02aabacked Italy | 45c | 331.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Italy | 44c | 318.18$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x411e…ea8bbacked Italy | 14c | 300$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 8cpaid | +529.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb960…8c47backed Japan | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Japan | 50c | 256$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.01 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…afd6backed Italy | 49c | 245.92$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.92 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb422…ce05backed Italy | 43c | 240$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe938…486ebacked Italy | 43c | 240$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa29c…a59dbacked Japan | 57c | 230$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…e8f0backed Japan | 57c | 230$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…4d02backed Japan | 57c | 220$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8648…463abacked Japan | 57c | 220$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Japan | 55c | 218.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1487…d443backed Italy | 46c | 217$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Japan | 59c | 213.97$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…d73dbacked Italy | 43c | 210$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b52…ca9cbacked Italy | 43c | 210$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x058f…68b6backed Japan | 52c | 208.94$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…c36abacked Italy | 46c | 189.44$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Italy | 44c | 182.79$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.79 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fd…db80backed Japan | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Japan | 59c | 169.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Japan | 60c | 166.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…a7c5backed Italy | 75c | 160.15$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Italy | 57c | 150.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.9 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x805b…be54backed Italy | 67c | 148.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Japan | 52c | 146.17$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x359f…fa80backed Italy | 8c | 144.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.94 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Japan | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95a…d895backed Japan | 19c | 126.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Italy | 39c | 120$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3998…7f0fbacked Italy | 42c | 118.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Italy | 44c | 115$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Japan | 45c | 113.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…5007backed Italy | 65c | 110$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Italy | 42c | 104.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.07 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 43cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e13…391fbacked Italy | 43c | 102.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Japan | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Japan | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f8…4ecfbacked Italy | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Italy | 44c | 76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5f61backed Japan | 73c | 72.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Japan | 57c | 62.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Japan | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Italy | 43c | 53.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Italy | 43c | 50.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Italy | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Japan | 42c | 47.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd7…db07backed Italy | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Japan | 38c | 44.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8574…61f9backed Japan | 40c | 43.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Japan | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf94b…94a7backed Japan | 53c | 37.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007c…82fdbacked Japan | 56c | 37.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0c…2265backed Japan | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Italy | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Japan | 59c | 25.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c6…5fc0backed Japan | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Japan | 56c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Japan | 58c | 20.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Italy | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146b…2e37backed Japan | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bbe8backed Japan | 56c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…95b3backed Italy | 67c | 15.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.