Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dffd19b9ba2867b1a0d033a272570af5fdabd1634780d65aa79928923138e67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 38c | 1,585$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed Yes | 24c | 1,168$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.61 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 44c | 787.74$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.26 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 686.12$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 668.67$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 61c | 595.81$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.32 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 594.74$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 398.6$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.68 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 367.84$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 42c | 367.35$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.34 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…b380backed Yes | 31c | 284.3$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.23 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 12c | 237.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 235.08$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.12 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 34c | 214.67$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 59c | 210.27$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.21 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 206.45$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.31 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 196$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.03 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 40c | 192.13$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.46 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 63c | 185.23$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.35 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 180.16$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 26c | 173.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 173.98$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 58c | 165$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 24c | 163$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 38c | 160$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 49c | 156$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.13 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 39c | 149.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 146.25$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 59c | 136.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 133.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 33c | 129.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 74c | 126.85$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 59c | 126.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 43c | 111.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 80c | 108.8$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 103$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 103$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 97.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 53c | 95.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 90.8$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 75c | 80.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 24c | 77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 70c | 75.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 62c | 75.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 62c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 74.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7142…e79ebacked Yes | 39c | 74.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 42c | 72.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 31c | 71.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 17c | 68.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 65.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 47c | 64.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 39c | 61.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 53c | 58.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 54.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 53.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 47c | 53.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 39c | 52.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 60c | 51.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…896ebacked Yes | 37c | 48.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…cd36backed Yes | 38c | 47.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 30c | 47.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 80c | 45.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 30c | 43.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 52c | 41.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 46c | 41.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 36c | 41.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1f…dbdabacked Yes | 42c | 40.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 28c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 46c | 36.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 75c | 32.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46e…fec5backed No | 78c | 32.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 58c | 31.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 30.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 62c | 30.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9297…358bbacked Yes | 39c | 30.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 62c | 29.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 69c | 28.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.