Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e73559e900d2e2d2a5e14cccd9272550373aa43c309274248383e2eb40f2bce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 2,045$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 34c | 999.99$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.4 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 882.18$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 78c | 540.21$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.51 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 533.62$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.78 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 519.85$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.97 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked Yes | 41c | 464.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 413.68$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 348.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 75c | 331.4$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 72c | 316.43$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.42 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 26c | 300$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.92 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 281.65$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 37c | 280.26$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.05 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 18c | 272.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 262.69$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 256.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 68c | 255.44$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.61 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 23c | 251.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 40c | 244.86$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.76 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 242.43$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.03 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 32c | 239.42$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 26c | 226$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209f…bea2backed Yes | 22c | 209$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +138.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23b8…0930backed No | 74c | 202.18$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 33c | 201.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 43c | 197.78$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 195$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 191.63$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 38c | 172.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…7bfcbacked Yes | 26c | 170$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 68c | 158.64$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 63c | 158.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 26c | 154.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 153.91$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 148.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 35c | 126.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 125$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 122$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 122$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 74c | 121.64$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 73c | 118$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 25c | 113.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 32c | 112.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972a…aee7backed No | 77c | 111.53$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 107.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 35c | 106.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 103.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb81…6894backed Yes | 24c | 102.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 38c | 100.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 98.96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 94.82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 64c | 90.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 23c | 87.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 18c | 84.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…3767backed No | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 71c | 80.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 27c | 79.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 40c | 75.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 78c | 66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 76c | 61.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 27c | 59.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 22c | 57.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…834bbacked Yes | 31c | 57.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 23c | 55.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 75c | 51.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 22c | 50.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…2213backed Yes | 21c | 47.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 64c | 47.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 23c | 46.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 67c | 44.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 32c | 42.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 29c | 41.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 40.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 30c | 38.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 33c | 37.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 67c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 34.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…e052backed No | 77c | 33.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 63c | 32.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 74c | 32.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 66c | 28.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 26.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 68c | 23.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…633bbacked No | 77c | 20.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.