Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c3e9c9a1cf810f585c511debbdafb4059c963615140305ba8b09cae536b89fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5c9…66d8backed Yes | 72c | 2,126$1,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 57c | 2,101$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.65 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 32c | 1,733$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 54c | 1,084$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.36 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 54c | 1,000$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.44 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 865.27$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 40c | 722.92$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 40c | 608.8$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.24 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 34c | 536.51$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.99 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed Yes | 59c | 505.97$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.48 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 64c | 499.46$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.12 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 42c | 474.86$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.32 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 41c | 426.86$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3a…faeebacked Yes | 72c | 371.78$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 360$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.79 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 44c | 350$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.42 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596f…3b5fbacked No | 26c | 333.21$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 41c | 326.5$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.04 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 41c | 324.96$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 66c | 299.98$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.99 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 242$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.58 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 38c | 239.76$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.33 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 44c | 216$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 28c | 213$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 60c | 207.87$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.87 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 76c | 201.68$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 72c | 199.77$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 66c | 197.93$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…2213backed No | 12c | 193$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 42c | 186.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 46c | 183.29$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.66 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 175.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 24c | 172$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 25c | 155$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 41c | 154.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 41c | 150$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 46c | 148$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 53c | 147$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 42c | 139.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 136.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 66c | 135.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 75c | 129.19$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…7bfcbacked Yes | 60c | 127.01$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 16c | 123.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…ace6backed Yes | 66c | 120.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ce…3c70backed No | 13c | 119.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 50c | 118.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked No | 28c | 115.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 20c | 115$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 26c | 113.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 56c | 106.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 25c | 105.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 58c | 89.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 34c | 89.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…491dbacked No | 44c | 82.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 77.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 60c | 75.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 56c | 74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 65c | 71.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 25c | 71.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 72c | 66.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 65c | 66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 74c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 54c | 56.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf7…bf76backed Yes | 58c | 55.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 36c | 54.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…7bcbbacked No | 27c | 51.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf23e…fab9backed No | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 21c | 49.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 29c | 46.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 76c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 50c | 44.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a6…c753backed No | 35c | 39.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc058…481abacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.