TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,068
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,761

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,068 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x578d…bbaabacked No71c1,321$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.765957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a3b…bd3bbacked No1c1,200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick19cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No33c950.79$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.144841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No55c872.02$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.2521854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No59c764.64$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.238655.8%48 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No69c762.48$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.5313357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes28c700.45$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.06933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed No76c699.73$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.24645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes39c672.84$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.8423723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddb5…9d52backed Yes39c513.22$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes49c483.72$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.742339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes26c402.94$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.9544138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed Yes29c344.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.821442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2a3…09b8backed Yes71c331.28$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.422458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes52c329.71$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.3614842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No67c327$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.2528558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes34c314.05$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.355644.6%25 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Yes37c276.68$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.425052%26 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes33c267.52$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.245127.5%14 W · 37 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No57c263.68$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.8935258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes46c257.58$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.4523044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes51c230.59$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11318342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No63c221.86$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9513646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa05f…0003backed Yes29c207$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.655248.1%25 W · 27 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x87ec…138fbacked No66c198.05$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.53520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-59.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No60c196$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.632354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No61c189$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8239952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No17c188.31$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3423551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes30c183.53$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.996835.3%24 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No35c169.61$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7718348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No21c169.36$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8839414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No51c168.93$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8288448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes48c163.52$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.572045%9 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No52c162.08$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0820065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked No9c161.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.045547.3%26 W · 29 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes40c160.19$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.498844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed No44c155$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.621154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes33c155$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.574355.8%24 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes38c150.43$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.879337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed Yes29c150$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.57450%37 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes29c150$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.55855.2%32 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No40c148.9$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2352850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcbd…4414backed Yes49c147.3$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.132100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No66c139.89$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.332653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No53c138.6$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.735954.2%32 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No63c137$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.315749.1%28 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes31c136.19$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.674129.3%12 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b18…efaebacked No29c134.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.52862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x613a…2185backed No12c133$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.96540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06ab…c964backed No58c128.49$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes48c128.11$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.114944.9%22 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes46c122.2$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.95850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes30c116.73$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.627741.6%32 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No52c115.35$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7614959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes32c108$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.9216934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No24c102$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.246346%29 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No52c101.64$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4834354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.336055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4616738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604344.2%19 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94a5…abfbbacked No57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.29540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed No80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.91844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb567…1575backed No70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636241.9%26 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No53c99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4114454.2%78 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5695…60e9backed Yes48c98.04$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.971464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed No56c93.9$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.242157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No18c92.09$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8540648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes68c89.94$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.636448.4%31 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No44c89.37$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9844428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Yes44c88.62$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.642231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No60c87$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5831152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No67c86.48$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2313155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes16c85.66$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.137353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes34c80.54$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.156330.2%19 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No22c80.12$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.027335.6%26 W · 47 L+9.4wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+17.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No64c80$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5122355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes29c77$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.671,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No55c73.96$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7127143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes41c73$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.079936.4%36 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes50c67$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.510837%40 W · 68 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No39c61.36$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1514521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No70c60$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.715766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No35c59.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2115558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No54c59.94$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.646765.7%44 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes42c58.04$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8316254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc4f…4926backed Yes49c57.92$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No41c56.7$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.073164.5%20 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No52c56.68$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2618662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes30c56.07$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.51742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+45.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46d5…1b8abacked Yes45c55.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.331650%8 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No56c51.65$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.816852.4%88 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd879…ae5dbacked Yes58c50.07$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.011485.7%12 W · 2 L+4.0wins+0.28per pick57cpaid+50.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No47c50.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5214553.8%78 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.526355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed No59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.51154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5e…c32abacked Yes55c49.19$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.19728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-55.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes24c48.94$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1939231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked No50c48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes42c47.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9712640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.