World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8032b569d211f30fbb76920f2b57248f8de2376f475782c6469a4e01ac80eea6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 71c | 1,321$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.76 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…bd3bbacked No | 1c | 1,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 33c | 950.79$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.14 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 872.02$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.25 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 764.64$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.23 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 69c | 762.48$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.53 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 28c | 700.45$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 76c | 699.73$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.2 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 39c | 672.84$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.84 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb5…9d52backed Yes | 39c | 513.22$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 49c | 483.72$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.74 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 402.94$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.95 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 29c | 344.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…09b8backed Yes | 71c | 331.28$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.42 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 52c | 329.71$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.36 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 327$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.25 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 34c | 314.05$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.35 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 37c | 276.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.42 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 33c | 267.52$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.24 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 263.68$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.89 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 257.58$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.45 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 51c | 230.59$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 221.86$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.95 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 29c | 207$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.65 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 66c | 198.05$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 196$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 189$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.82 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 17c | 188.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 30c | 183.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.99 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 35c | 169.61$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 169.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 168.93$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.82 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 48c | 163.52$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.57 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 52c | 162.08$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.08 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 9c | 161.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 40c | 160.19$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.49 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 44c | 155$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 33c | 155$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.57 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 38c | 150.43$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.87 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 148.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…4414backed Yes | 49c | 147.3$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 66c | 139.89$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.33 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 53c | 138.6$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 63c | 137$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.31 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 31c | 136.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 29c | 134.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed No | 12c | 133$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ab…c964backed No | 58c | 128.49$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 48c | 128.11$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.11 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 46c | 122.2$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 30c | 116.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.62 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 115.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 32c | 108$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 24c | 102$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 101.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.46 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…abfbbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb567…1575backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 48c | 98.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 56c | 93.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 18c | 92.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 68c | 89.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 89.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 44c | 88.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 67c | 86.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 16c | 85.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 34c | 80.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 22c | 80.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 73.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 41c | 73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 50c | 67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 39c | 61.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 54c | 59.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 42c | 58.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4f…4926backed Yes | 49c | 57.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 41c | 56.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 52c | 56.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes | 30c | 56.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d5…1b8abacked Yes | 45c | 55.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 56c | 51.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…ae5dbacked Yes | 58c | 50.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 47c | 50.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…c32abacked Yes | 55c | 49.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 48.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 47.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.