Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8111730a05e3ba5007bd462e29072e19dbf4074e048e1f1d6a588cb4b7aa35d2

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Saudi Arabiaof Cabo Verde, Saudi Arabia
Resolved: Jun 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $223,730
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $221,675

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,730 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe214…c5cebacked Cabo Verde	12c	32,828$3,940 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,939.81	224	37.1%83 W · 141 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac47…d234backed Cabo Verde	16c	28,508$4,676 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,676.42	210	29%61 W · 149 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Cabo Verde	15c	14,443$2,212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,212.07	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe987…f0e1backed Cabo Verde	14c	10,000$1,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,400	380	26.6%101 W · 279 L	-10.0wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Cabo Verde	14c	9,999$1,448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,448.14	1,044	43.7%456 W · 588 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Cabo Verde	12c	9,616$1,175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,175.01	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Cabo Verde	15c	7,214$1,082 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,082.15	239	42.3%101 W · 138 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cabo Verde	7c	6,375$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.45	1,144	39.2%448 W · 696 L	-8.4wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Cabo Verde	16c	5,835$934 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$933.6	387	34.4%133 W · 254 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Cabo Verde	18c	5,556$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	250	19.6%49 W · 201 L	-5.6wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f03…ec6abacked Cabo Verde	17c	4,118$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	78	24.4%19 W · 59 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Cabo Verde	16c	3,083$489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$488.76	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e98…1583backed Cabo Verde	16c	3,030$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496.55	83	49.4%41 W · 42 L	+6.0wins	+0.07per pick	42cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9865…57acbacked Cabo Verde	15c	2,667$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	109	11%12 W · 97 L	-9.4wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-66%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Cabo Verde	18c	2,031$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.56	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Cabo Verde	15c	1,570$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.16	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cabo Verde	13c	1,330$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.47	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x848c…2bf0backed Cabo Verde	16c	1,136$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.2	221	22.2%49 W · 172 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Cabo Verde	14c	1,135$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.95	432	48.4%209 W · 223 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe991…48b1backed Cabo Verde	18c	1,111$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	336	41.7%140 W · 196 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2463…e21bbacked Cabo Verde	16c	1,000$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.82	268	36.9%99 W · 169 L	-7.9wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6adf…4f5bbacked Cabo Verde	16c	1,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	161	39.8%64 W · 97 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Cabo Verde	16c	820.68$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.31	168	31.5%53 W · 115 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e47…b3d0backed Cabo Verde	16c	762.87$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	208	19.7%41 W · 167 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked Cabo Verde	12c	630$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.76	585	30.9%181 W · 404 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa739…19c8backed Cabo Verde	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	131	41.2%54 W · 77 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…560fbacked Cabo Verde	16c	500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	58	17.2%10 W · 48 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Cabo Verde	14c	499.99$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	92	66.3%61 W · 31 L	+13.3wins	+0.14per pick	52cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0xcc6d…7aaebacked Cabo Verde	15c	457.07$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.56	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Cabo Verde	9c	429.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.09	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x835a…530abacked Cabo Verde	16c	425$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	154	55.2%85 W · 69 L	+14.6wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe00e…ea73backed Cabo Verde	4c	395.57$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	107	32.7%35 W · 72 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbec0…9bddbacked Cabo Verde	7c	384.06$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.82	626	33.9%212 W · 414 L	-28.6wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea79…584fbacked Cabo Verde	15c	330$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	84	48.8%41 W · 43 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+37%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ab…9fd9backed Cabo Verde	16c	312.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	74	4.1%3 W · 71 L	-4.7wins	-0.06per pick	10cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e89…3e0abacked Cabo Verde	16c	312.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	267	16.1%43 W · 224 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x494e…d3dbbacked Cabo Verde	16c	312.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	389	24.4%95 W · 294 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3b8…7845backed Cabo Verde	16c	312.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	20	65%13 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	64cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c86…6a80backed Cabo Verde	17c	294.12$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	148	39.9%59 W · 89 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Cabo Verde	11c	260.33$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.19	719	39.1%281 W · 438 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-33%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d7a…751abacked Cabo Verde	16c	248.26$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.72	732	34.6%253 W · 479 L	-22.2wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2613…12bdbacked Cabo Verde	16c	241.44$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.63	140	35.7%50 W · 90 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc61f…35a6backed Cabo Verde	15c	214.95$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.24	318	42.5%135 W · 183 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed Cabo Verde	9c	199.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	261	46%120 W · 141 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Cabo Verde	16c	187.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	470	49.4%232 W · 238 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Cabo Verde	16c	156.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	823	40.9%337 W · 486 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0363…d67abacked Cabo Verde	16c	153.87$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.62	54	37%20 W · 34 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb2…02b0backed Cabo Verde	17c	150$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	365	34.2%125 W · 240 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e3…2b9bbacked Cabo Verde	15c	135.83$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-18%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Cabo Verde	17c	127.56$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.69	1,686	20.6%347 W · 1,339 L	-28.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcc…031ebacked Cabo Verde	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	163	43.6%71 W · 92 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb635…180dbacked Cabo Verde	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	117	35%41 W · 76 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e52…ec62backed Cabo Verde	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x779c…6f03backed Cabo Verde	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	63	33.3%21 W · 42 L	-2.9wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Cabo Verde	12c	123.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.82	456	27.9%127 W · 329 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	+6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Cabo Verde	15c	122.28$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.33	1,945	42.7%831 W · 1,114 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe174…084ebacked Cabo Verde	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	73	23.3%17 W · 56 L	+3.7wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda22…61d0backed Cabo Verde	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	79	45.6%36 W · 43 L	+4.4wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Cabo Verde	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	514	29.4%151 W · 363 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Cabo Verde	15c	110$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	1,702	36.7%625 W · 1,077 L	-31.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed Cabo Verde	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	65	16.9%11 W · 54 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391b…3179backed Cabo Verde	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	56	25%14 W · 42 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-54%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8ee…150abacked Cabo Verde	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	138	42.8%59 W · 79 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43a8…e9d9backed Cabo Verde	15c	99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	145	33.1%48 W · 97 L	-7.5wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7572…6156backed Cabo Verde	16c	91.25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92e1…89dcbacked Cabo Verde	16c	80.31$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.85	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0551…5498backed Cabo Verde	17c	70.54$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	42	21.4%9 W · 33 L	-6.2wins	-0.15per pick	36cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x500e…bd16backed Cabo Verde	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	168	36.9%62 W · 106 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1036…5cf6backed Cabo Verde	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	42	54.8%23 W · 19 L	+5.8wins	+0.14per pick	41cpaid	+44.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0459…0fcbbacked Cabo Verde	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	267	20.6%55 W · 212 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5f0d…c375backed Cabo Verde	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6983…fd10backed Cabo Verde	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	67	35.8%24 W · 43 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x208f…b41fbacked Cabo Verde	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	116	25.9%30 W · 86 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6663…1494backed Cabo Verde	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+3.3wins	+0.18per pick	26cpaid	+92%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5)this page
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5Under won
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5)Saudi Arabia won
Spread: Cabo Verde (-3.5)Saudi Arabia won
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5)Cabo Verde won
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5)Cabo Verde won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event