Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9071667acecf09df549a77327ee534ef8f1125acdeb79a5d7385a7c98f05be1a

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Cabo Verdeof Saudi Arabia, Cabo Verde
Resolved: Jun 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $158,196
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $156,150

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,196 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc699…7961backed Saudi Arabia	15c	6,619$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Saudi Arabia	7c	6,373$446 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$446.23	1,144	39.2%448 W · 696 L	-8.4wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Saudi Arabia	14c	5,214$730 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$729.67	1,044	43.7%456 W · 588 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09dd…7e13backed Saudi Arabia	13c	4,700$618 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$618	379	44.1%167 W · 212 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Saudi Arabia	16c	4,481$723 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$723.02	2,819	44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L	-36.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Saudi Arabia	6c	3,399$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.08	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Saudi Arabia	13c	2,262$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.46	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Saudi Arabia	8c	2,150$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.48	108	36.1%39 W · 69 L	+8.7wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	+32.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Saudi Arabia	8c	2,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	285	26.3%75 W · 210 L	-8.7wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c12…748fbacked Saudi Arabia	8c	1,884$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.78	324	22.5%73 W · 251 L	-8.5wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Saudi Arabia	16c	1,800$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288	112	47.3%53 W · 59 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Saudi Arabia	16c	1,405$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.95	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf7a…0c40backed Saudi Arabia	14c	1,310$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.43	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa0e…2a0ebacked Saudi Arabia	17c	1,200$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	342	47.7%163 W · 179 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb135…b9febacked Saudi Arabia	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	242	33.5%81 W · 161 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6adf…4f5bbacked Saudi Arabia	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	161	39.8%64 W · 97 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Saudi Arabia	10c	921.79$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.14	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Saudi Arabia	3c	921$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.12	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x361b…74febacked Saudi Arabia	12c	831.13$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.84	510	32.5%166 W · 344 L	-9.1wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Saudi Arabia	7c	785.96$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.59	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Saudi Arabia	14c	778.33$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.97	1,873	48.4%906 W · 967 L	+14.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddfc…cd9ebacked Saudi Arabia	8c	750$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	60	43.3%26 W · 34 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…30abbacked Saudi Arabia	14c	697.43$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.64	80	38.8%31 W · 49 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf36e…f91cbacked Saudi Arabia	19c	684.21$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	154	18.8%29 W · 125 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Saudi Arabia	8c	607.38$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.59	74	31.1%23 W · 51 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a41…e8d5backed Saudi Arabia	15c	571$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.65	65	60%39 W · 26 L	+6.6wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca4d…5b1dbacked Saudi Arabia	18c	534.37$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.75	81	16%13 W · 68 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Saudi Arabia	17c	507$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.17	44	25%11 W · 33 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…67fdbacked Saudi Arabia	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	320	46.6%149 W · 171 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c3…ac23backed Saudi Arabia	15c	494.99$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.25	957	39.5%378 W · 579 L	-18.4wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0823…ec6abacked Saudi Arabia	14c	452.5$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.35	431	39%168 W · 263 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Saudi Arabia	6c	432.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.7	1,711	35.2%603 W · 1,108 L	-68.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Saudi Arabia	8c	417.01$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.36	384	37%142 W · 242 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4cb…a366backed Saudi Arabia	15c	414$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.1	133	37.6%50 W · 83 L	-9.0wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Saudi Arabia	18c	338.7$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.49	372	23.4%87 W · 285 L	-25.7wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x62c3…90fcbacked Saudi Arabia	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Saudi Arabia	8c	324.54$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.96	390	39%152 W · 238 L	-12.2wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a84…c0a1backed Saudi Arabia	16c	313$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.08	65	46.2%30 W · 35 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83fe…9762backed Saudi Arabia	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	27cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked Saudi Arabia	13c	248$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.9	585	30.9%181 W · 404 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Saudi Arabia	14c	229.91$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.19	1,001	53.9%540 W · 461 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe36a…ae58backed Saudi Arabia	14c	207.35$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.03	76	53.9%41 W · 35 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce24…6239backed Saudi Arabia	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7cd…093abacked Saudi Arabia	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	288	22.6%65 W · 223 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x613a…2185backed Saudi Arabia	13c	199$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.32	462	30.1%139 W · 323 L	-13.8wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7572…6156backed Saudi Arabia	15c	194.67$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.2	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Saudi Arabia	15c	152$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.16	38	23.7%9 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x092f…d9fdbacked Saudi Arabia	19c	147.37$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	185	53%98 W · 87 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x256c…fef0backed Saudi Arabia	15c	145$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.17	60	48.3%29 W · 31 L	+5.0wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x88fb…db3abacked Saudi Arabia	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	120	40%48 W · 72 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe87…83d6backed Saudi Arabia	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	40%16 W · 24 L	-3.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d6c…72f5backed Saudi Arabia	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa424…ee6fbacked Saudi Arabia	16c	109$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.44	51	49%25 W · 26 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Saudi Arabia	16c	101.24$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.81	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e9e…208cbacked Saudi Arabia	14c	99.32$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	39	43.6%17 W · 22 L	+3.6wins	+0.09per pick	34cpaid	+36.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Saudi Arabia	17c	90.52$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.81	249	47.4%118 W · 131 L	+14.2wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa443…dc9bbacked Saudi Arabia	15c	87$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.05	58	43.1%25 W · 33 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f58…0438backed Saudi Arabia	16c	81$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcce5…7eb2backed Saudi Arabia	15c	80$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf57…053bbacked Saudi Arabia	16c	70$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	+2.3wins	+0.07per pick	34cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58fe…d772backed Saudi Arabia	15c	70$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	47	40.4%19 W · 28 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd562…b6d1backed Saudi Arabia	15c	66.67$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	20	70%14 W · 6 L	+3.4wins	+0.17per pick	53cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5)this page
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5Under won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5Under won
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5)Saudi Arabia won
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5)Saudi Arabia won
Spread: Cabo Verde (-3.5)Saudi Arabia won
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5)Cabo Verde won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event