Premier League · resolved market
Chelsea FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x816099d50226f0069c6932e79d26ed242153f10fbede1aa670605228bbdde145
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb19f…dd0ebacked Under | 37c | 5,632$2,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,574.23 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 4,096$2,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,245.23 | 6,217 | 45.6%2,834 W · 3,383 L | -33.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 23c | 3,819$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.38 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 33c | 3,161$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,117.58 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 59c | 1,689$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.51 | 320 | 37.2%119 W · 201 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 1,590$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.9 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 77cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed Under | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c6…367dbacked Under | 9c | 1,155$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.37 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 70c | 1,093$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.6 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 76c | 592.11$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.11 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 27c | 586.22$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.56 | 4,874 | 41.5%2,021 W · 2,853 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 77c | 499.99$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 108 | 74.1%80 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 75c | 325$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.75 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…4e1fbacked Under | 77c | 285.88$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 61c | 270.01$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.04 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Under | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fca…6129backed Under | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…8a7ebacked Under | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2c…c6abbacked Over | 6c | 199.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd66…48e4backed Under | 13c | 193.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 74c | 152$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 186 | 46.8%87 W · 99 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 77c | 140$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 234 | 53.8%126 W · 108 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…8e4bbacked Over | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75d…5a1dbacked Under | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 62cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 233 | 57.1%133 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ee…f7a7backed Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Over | 73c | 108.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…28bcbacked Under | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Under | 77c | 103.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 180 | 59.4%107 W · 73 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 55c | 100.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Over | 64c | 100.43$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…e9e3backed Under | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02a…8e83backed Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 66c | 91.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 138 | 41.3%57 W · 81 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d17…0f7bbacked Under | 68c | 84.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…8360backed Under | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 65c | 81.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 240 | 62.5%150 W · 90 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x693e…44e7backed Under | 37c | 78.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8f…386cbacked Under | 77c | 76.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 67cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb85…af9bbacked Under | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa122…9847backed Under | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -7.9wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Under | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f5…440ebacked Over | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 33c | 58.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 892 | 52.9%472 W · 420 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 26c | 54.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 222 | 44.1%98 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 66c | 53.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Under | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb2…3db8backed Under | 48c | 47.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87a…410bbacked Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe34a…273ebacked Under | 76c | 40.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…923dbacked Under | 80c | 37.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0a…70a0backed Under | 77c | 37.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…85efbacked Under | 30c | 37.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 37c | 32.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437d…456fbacked Under | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Under | 60c | 32.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 426 | 60.6%258 W · 168 L | +24.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Under | 69c | 27.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d5…df27backed Under | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…d378backed Under | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cf…f5aebacked Over | 60c | 25.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…85a1backed Under | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…2b0abacked Under | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chelsea FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 4.5this page
- Chelsea FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Chelsea FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)AFC Bournemouth won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.