Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x824a448af6a3946c3eb502feb8c15a0a29fe956bac851bcc99aed45f9069c23a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 46c | 824.99$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.04 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 653.33$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 558.36$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 57c | 513.36$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.99 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 508.5$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed Yes | 73c | 484.84$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.83 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 46c | 430.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.24 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 17c | 424.75$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 42c | 399.99$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.99 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 393.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 49c | 356.92$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.06 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 37c | 347.21$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.22 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 236.39$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 37c | 235.9$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.57 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 205.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.33 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 50c | 201.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 45c | 200.35$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.39 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 186.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 161.4$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.81 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 47c | 157.45$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.45 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 152.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 137$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 135.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 44c | 129$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.27 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 128.31$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 79c | 127.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 112.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…8487backed No | 49c | 101.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 48c | 98.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 31c | 95.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 77c | 65.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 48c | 61.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 64c | 56.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 54c | 55.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 48c | 52.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 43c | 51.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 78c | 51.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 49.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 54c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 53c | 48.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 55c | 47.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 55c | 45.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 30c | 45.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 62c | 45.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed Yes | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 24c | 43.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 48c | 39.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 54c | 38.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 47c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 55c | 36.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 44c | 34.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 47c | 28.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 56c | 26.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 39c | 26.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd638…02b6backed No | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 25.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…34a7backed Yes | 79c | 25.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 58c | 25.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…299ebacked No | 43c | 24.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 57c | 24.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x598f…528bbacked Yes | 65c | 23.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 45c | 23.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 57c | 20.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0966…6ed2backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7787…d002backed Yes | 80c | 17.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.