Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f4a58a29f955edd9e99665f9f7662c18c31a644b19b0750af2074f9287fd8cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 30c | 1,800$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.94 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 1,704$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 33c | 977.18$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.19 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 530$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.07 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 501.7$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 498.21$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 432.37$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.94 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 392.79$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 67c | 324.84$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.41 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 317.46$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.97 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 262.24$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 228.49$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.83 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 69c | 222.4$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.47 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 214.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 214$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 70c | 212.06$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 26c | 203.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 67c | 196.01$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 29c | 187.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 183.61$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 182$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 29c | 172$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 71c | 161.23$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 30c | 157.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 153.86$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 45c | 145.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 145.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 137$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 36c | 136.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 72c | 130$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 59c | 124.4$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 118.31$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 118$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 114.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 27c | 94.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 35c | 94.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 33c | 91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 64c | 85.02$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 59c | 84.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 82.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 25c | 82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 70c | 79.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 25c | 76.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 22c | 76.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 33c | 75.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 29c | 68.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 66c | 67.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 32c | 61.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 36c | 56.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 62c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 76c | 54.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 19c | 54.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 77c | 49.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 69c | 47.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 71c | 47.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 70c | 45.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 41c | 43.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 32c | 43.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 33c | 40.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 64c | 38.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 72c | 37.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 71c | 36.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 72c | 25.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 24.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 22.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 69c | 20.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 18.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 65c | 18.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed No | 72c | 18.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 17.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 70c | 17.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.