TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Dallas Wings vs. Connecticut Sun

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dallas Wingsof Dallas Wings, Connecticut Sun
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$170,962
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$179,372

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,962 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 238 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x67ac…edf1backed Dallas Wings67c13,886$9,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,546.25977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Connecticut Sun52c10,517$5,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,521.4310440.4%42 W · 62 L-0.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Connecticut Sun78c7,500$5,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,842.181040%4 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-37.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b14…e02abacked Connecticut Sun67c6,698$4,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,487.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Dallas Wings77c6,000$4,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,381.451154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Connecticut Sun73c5,411$3,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,961.215466.7%36 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eb1…96e1backed Dallas Wings26c5,321$1,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,934.34757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.24per pick34cpaid+49.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb915…8da5backed Connecticut Sun27c5,216$1,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,407.426848.5%33 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Dallas Wings35c4,814$1,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,110.4810838.9%42 W · 66 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Dallas Wings37c3,521$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,232.379354.8%51 W · 42 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Dallas Wings44c3,419$1,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,901.4712245.1%55 W · 67 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Connecticut Sun28c3,231$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.6212045%54 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Connecticut Sun75c3,024$2,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,266.412165.3%79 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+24.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Connecticut Sun61c2,877$1,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,752.7356455.1%311 W · 253 L+27.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Connecticut Sun38c2,793$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06734826.4%92 W · 256 L-21.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Dallas Wings74c2,592$1,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.017259.7%43 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Connecticut Sun38c2,525$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.17431.1%23 W · 51 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-34.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Connecticut Sun55c2,162$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.91,78751.7%924 W · 863 L+54.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c3a…a56bbacked Dallas Wings73c2,149$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.343053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc368…a3c4backed Dallas Wings59c1,953$1,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.151030%3 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-44%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Dallas Wings73c1,908$1,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.7619658.2%114 W · 82 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Dallas Wings73c1,804$1,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.9985948.4%416 W · 443 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Connecticut Sun69c1,755$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.241,63250.2%819 W · 813 L+37.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Connecticut Sun27c1,706$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.6236754%198 W · 169 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Dallas Wings63c1,575$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.579938.4%38 W · 61 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Connecticut Sun66c1,268$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.0118157.5%104 W · 77 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa62a…f05bbacked Dallas Wings39c1,267$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.583073.3%22 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Connecticut Sun63c1,214$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.3439045.9%179 W · 211 L-15.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Dallas Wings46c1,185$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.662437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1852…cb4ebacked Dallas Wings30c1,177$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.012817.9%5 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-41.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Connecticut Sun70c1,176$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.4976142.7%325 W · 436 L-19.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Connecticut Sun26c1,167$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.4541051.2%210 W · 200 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27d2…b0f8backed Dallas Wings40c1,081$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.1785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick69cpaid+30.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Dallas Wings31c1,063$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.2511351.3%58 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Connecticut Sun27c1,062$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.1332749.5%162 W · 165 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Dallas Wings33c1,053$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.6816633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Dallas Wings73c1,024$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.4893248.8%455 W · 477 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked Dallas Wings74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3f9…45a7backed Dallas Wings55c957.91$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.844365.1%28 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6770…5bdfbacked Dallas Wings37c919.13$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.545642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed Dallas Wings31c861.48$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.367357.5%42 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Connecticut Sun42c811.41$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.5231443%135 W · 179 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7693…470fbacked Connecticut Sun27c742.26$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Dallas Wings25c669.99$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.497520%15 W · 60 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Dallas Wings25c633.75$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.651552.6%271 W · 244 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc8c…273fbacked Connecticut Sun28c617.95$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1702937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b9…4092backed Connecticut Sun76c598.76$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.0620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Connecticut Sun75c579.35$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.375119.6%10 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-48.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Dallas Wings37c569.58$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.2813844.9%62 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ec…baaabacked Dallas Wings40c567.72$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+152.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6759…1117backed Dallas Wings24c553.58$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.584100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+186.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ec6…d9edbacked Connecticut Sun18c529.99$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.29318.3%17 W · 76 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Dallas Wings36c499.81$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.8610739.3%42 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed Connecticut Sun27c499.69$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.88733.3%29 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x113f…ae4dbacked Dallas Wings25c490.56$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.413063.3%19 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Dallas Wings63c489.87$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.790449.4%447 W · 457 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf9f…998bbacked Dallas Wings42c480.46$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55f5…e2a0backed Connecticut Sun63c474.44$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001250%6 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Connecticut Sun24c458.42$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0279648.7%388 W · 408 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Connecticut Sun65c420.51$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.033253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Dallas Wings30c419.31$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.332148.6%156 W · 165 L+0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b8d…44b1backed Connecticut Sun14c418.21$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.510237.3%38 W · 64 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51da…a701backed Dallas Wings74c405.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.4116153.4%86 W · 75 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e1d…2b19backed Connecticut Sun43c400$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1702040%8 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x029e…b19cbacked Connecticut Sun43c400$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1701330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-51.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1d6…423dbacked Connecticut Sun43c400$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-43.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Connecticut Sun29c358.39$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1046743.3%29 W · 38 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+22%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Dallas Wings43c343.88$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.7338744.7%173 W · 214 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Connecticut Sun65c343.11$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.1432047.8%153 W · 167 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Dallas Wings35c341.92$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.7219628.6%56 W · 140 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e9e…208cbacked Connecticut Sun27c335.28$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Connecticut Sun75c334.82$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Dallas Wings37c328.88$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.0118746%86 W · 101 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc908…2f61backed Connecticut Sun64c313.52$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9958…b9acbacked Connecticut Sun63c307.92$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked Connecticut Sun28c306.16$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.423231.3%10 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Dallas Wings33c300$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20112840.6%52 W · 76 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Dallas Wings74c293.21$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.235364.2%34 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc75…af4dbacked Connecticut Sun30c286$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.382634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked Dallas Wings66c283.17$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.274235.7%15 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cab…f595backed Connecticut Sun62c282.86$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1761553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc50…f8debacked Connecticut Sun27c281.22$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.932944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Dallas Wings25c280.69$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.8615654.5%85 W · 71 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Dallas Wings54c273$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.9821546.5%100 W · 115 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Dallas Wings55c265.26$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.5726147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Connecticut Sun27c259.26$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709635.4%34 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Dallas Wings51c259.17$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.9835254.3%191 W · 161 L+21.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4027…30b9backed Dallas Wings39c254.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.12339.1%9 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Dallas Wings22c250$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19513540%54 W · 81 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed Dallas Wings53c248.47$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.789549.5%47 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Dallas Wings36c248.46$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.8819231.8%61 W · 131 L-13.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-42.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Dallas Wings57c246.04$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.2315346.4%71 W · 82 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Dallas Wings26c245.41$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.0511941.2%49 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked Connecticut Sun64c232.25$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1481275%9 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+25%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Connecticut Sun50c230.43$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.2113358.6%78 W · 55 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0c4…989abacked Dallas Wings27c229.11$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.252060%12 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf42a…4b3cbacked Connecticut Sun45c224.48$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010749.5%53 W · 54 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e45…4b13backed Connecticut Sun77c221.22$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1704269%29 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15c5…4692backed Dallas Wings74c216.82$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.555763.2%36 W · 21 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad2b…2a8ebacked Connecticut Sun43c209.1$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.871030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.