Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ab049341e5eb077b532575018c7e505bf1b6b86cc790b056b44417fe46a5b32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 957.33$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.59 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 3c | 483.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 481.15$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 54c | 397.49$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 64c | 274.46$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.45 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 259.91$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 255.36$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.18 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 31c | 245.89$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.97 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 219.55$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.71 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 40c | 206.67$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.05 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 64c | 180.74$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 127.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 12c | 114.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 44c | 113.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 38c | 104$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 56c | 100.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 92.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 32c | 83.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae99…1e43backed Yes | 44c | 70.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 69.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 56c | 66.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 66.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 65.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 56.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3c…c6d8backed Yes | 44c | 55.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 56c | 52.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 56c | 51.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 60c | 46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 43c | 45.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 55c | 43.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 43.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 46c | 40.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 56c | 32.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 54c | 29.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 35c | 28.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 57c | 26.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…4b84backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 75c | 24.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 57c | 23.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 57c | 21.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…1479backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…e434backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…8490backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…3998backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 19.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 69c | 15.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.