TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Luca Nardi vs Otto Virtanen

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Otto Virtanenof Luca Nardi, Otto Virtanen
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,219
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,967

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,219 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x08cc…67babacked Luca Nardi7c8,039$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.56610%0 W · 61 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Otto Virtanen77c3,166$2,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.394,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Luca Nardi10c2,609$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.2211,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Luca Nardi18c1,262$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.424,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x710c…78eabacked Otto Virtanen72c1,094$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.091,04058.2%605 W · 435 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Luca Nardi26c1,079$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.995,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Otto Virtanen74c1,078$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.244,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Luca Nardi20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Luca Nardi29c1,000$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.292,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc0c…218abacked Luca Nardi27c999.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27054138.1%206 W · 335 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e38…1b52backed Luca Nardi15c861.68$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.2561924.4%151 W · 468 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9678…cfe5backed Luca Nardi11c715.45$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.742634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-37.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x974a…8efdbacked Luca Nardi3c642.86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.292842.9%12 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Luca Nardi13c603.66$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.58,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Luca Nardi29c561.9$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.9942141.8%176 W · 245 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Luca Nardi15c511.9$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7626921.2%57 W · 212 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Luca Nardi19c511.57$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8992237.4%345 W · 577 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Otto Virtanen73c508.98$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.7889850.1%450 W · 448 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Luca Nardi28c457$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.961,22753.2%653 W · 574 L-5.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Luca Nardi4c398.35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9392145.2%416 W · 505 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3705…9677backed Luca Nardi27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013029.2%38 W · 92 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1a…e943backed Luca Nardi28c358.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021524.7%53 W · 162 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Luca Nardi17c323.53$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551,56640%627 W · 939 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Luca Nardi29c275.51$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.781,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ad5…ccdebacked Otto Virtanen71c231$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9955032.7%180 W · 370 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Otto Virtanen73c225$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.776942%29 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd58e…bf44backed Luca Nardi16c218.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354425%11 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-31.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00d2…fe64backed Luca Nardi29c211$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4119634.2%67 W · 129 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Otto Virtanen73c199.75$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.932,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Luca Nardi24c197.7$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9522246.8%104 W · 118 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Luca Nardi29c183.95$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.351,79546.6%837 W · 958 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Otto Virtanen70c178.57$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5791754%495 W · 422 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff4…b609backed Otto Virtanen72c158.59$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6514954.4%81 W · 68 L-0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…a806backed Otto Virtanen71c155$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9511336.3%41 W · 72 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4628…d573backed Luca Nardi29c154.14$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.72661.5%16 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Luca Nardi24c153.12$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.581,97346.3%914 W · 1,059 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Otto Virtanen72c150$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.583447.5%396 W · 438 L-2.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Otto Virtanen74c148.64$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.652,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Luca Nardi27c147.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.323,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Luca Nardi16c144.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.441,22823.1%284 W · 944 L-164.0wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-47%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Otto Virtanen72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8958045.9%266 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Otto Virtanen74c134.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.051,83153%971 W · 860 L-45.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Luca Nardi29c133.33$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.671,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Luca Nardi12c130.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.421,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Otto Virtanen71c125.58$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4218256.6%103 W · 79 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x692b…b4f2backed Luca Nardi26c123.2$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0345744.2%202 W · 255 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5430…fbbbbacked Luca Nardi29c122.03$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3915451.9%80 W · 74 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Otto Virtanen78c120$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.911,72552.2%901 W · 824 L-8.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Luca Nardi29c111$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1942359.1%250 W · 173 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Luca Nardi17c109$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.534,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Otto Virtanen72c107.99$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.241,09452.4%573 W · 521 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Luca Nardi29c101.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.867848.4%328 W · 350 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Luca Nardi27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,54149.2%758 W · 783 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Luca Nardi31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.353043%228 W · 302 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Luca Nardi12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.336,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff5a…af9fbacked Luca Nardi28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284934.7%17 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9d0…2a3abacked Luca Nardi16c95.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1516437.8%62 W · 102 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-15%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6a80…d472backed Otto Virtanen70c86.19$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.191,18652.4%622 W · 564 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2725…e7d1backed Otto Virtanen71c79.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0743952.4%230 W · 209 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Luca Nardi26c74.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.42,04453.8%1,100 W · 944 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2e0…5a1bbacked Luca Nardi21c70.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1521533.5%72 W · 143 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Otto Virtanen72c69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.321,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Luca Nardi20c62.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.462,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9506…6182backed Otto Virtanen74c60.81$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.813748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82aa…fe2fbacked Luca Nardi27c57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3962727.3%171 W · 456 L-15.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Otto Virtanen79c56.73$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.742,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd868…7f60backed Luca Nardi27c51.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27b1…3813backed Otto Virtanen72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141,16849.1%573 W · 595 L-2.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Otto Virtanen72c48.83$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.671,06557.4%611 W · 454 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e43…0306backed Luca Nardi27c42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5532726.9%88 W · 239 L-43.6wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-41.3%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Otto Virtanen72c40.7$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.223,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Luca Nardi29c40.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.653,87445.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b56…a082backed Otto Virtanen71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.642563.3%269 W · 156 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc07…5ccabacked Luca Nardi29c38.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.258242.7%35 W · 47 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a3d…f2ffbacked Luca Nardi29c37.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1129237.3%109 W · 183 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70f9…f25bbacked Luca Nardi29c37.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8599056%554 W · 436 L+32.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ef1…5acabacked Otto Virtanen71c37$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.731,79460.2%1,080 W · 714 L+6.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e6f…f8e8backed Otto Virtanen70c35.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.712962.1%18 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x522f…1164backed Otto Virtanen73c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4530436.8%112 W · 192 L-19.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Otto Virtanen77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.052,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27f3…31ecbacked Otto Virtanen74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.034100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe717…0710backed Otto Virtanen69c21.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.74580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa3a…94aabacked Otto Virtanen74c20.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.274959.2%29 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Otto Virtanen71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.731,25044.7%559 W · 691 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb1…e1d6backed Otto Virtanen71c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.353956.4%22 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Otto Virtanen72c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1519064.7%123 W · 67 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.