TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Facundo Acosta

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Facundo Acostaof August Holmgren, Facundo Acosta
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$86,772
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$111,542

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,772 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked August Holmgren43c5,304$2,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,294.2311,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked August Holmgren45c3,644$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.294,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde1d…44a6backed Facundo Acosta30c3,262$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,283.4521244.3%94 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc181…0992backed Facundo Acosta59c3,221$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320.6865651.8%340 W · 316 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Facundo Acosta64c3,104$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.6862956.9%358 W · 271 L+0.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0828…a1a6backed Facundo Acosta51c2,548$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.2527148%130 W · 141 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked August Holmgren46c2,505$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.7616552.7%87 W · 78 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x62ae…c975backed August Holmgren29c2,157$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63021537.2%80 W · 135 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2db3…667abacked Facundo Acosta63c1,940$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.4325448.4%123 W · 131 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Facundo Acosta72c1,882$1,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.4411552.2%60 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed August Holmgren41c1,668$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.795,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bc5…4626backed Facundo Acosta72c1,589$1,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.8315444.2%68 W · 86 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed August Holmgren35c1,364$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.467139.4%28 W · 43 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc26a…b715backed August Holmgren29c1,131$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.0257321.8%125 W · 448 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed August Holmgren26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26085634.2%293 W · 563 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x097c…5cdebacked Facundo Acosta58c958.76$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.688447.6%40 W · 44 L-8.0wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x47c6…be32backed Facundo Acosta65c888.12$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.8412852.3%67 W · 61 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Facundo Acosta73c832.24$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.4119452.1%101 W · 93 L-13.6wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked August Holmgren29c759.6$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.561,17552.9%622 W · 553 L+2.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9082…afc3backed August Holmgren37c756.86$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.041717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-46.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Facundo Acosta36c694.44$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.4487337.1%324 W · 549 L-3.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed August Holmgren40c687.38$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.318,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21b5…1db6backed Facundo Acosta65c665.28$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.8528562.8%179 W · 106 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed August Holmgren28c601.56$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.734,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Facundo Acosta58c573.43$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.432,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked August Holmgren26c535.28$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.1727944.1%123 W · 156 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88ff…78aebacked Facundo Acosta64c534.5$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.0415928.9%46 W · 113 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-32.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ddc…e874backed August Holmgren46c515.88$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.8832240.7%131 W · 191 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed August Holmgren60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed August Holmgren65c495.96$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.639,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Facundo Acosta75c453$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.251,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaf3…e802backed Facundo Acosta52c450$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.547728.1%134 W · 343 L+18.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f6a…9888backed August Holmgren27c420.35$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.571,22255%672 W · 550 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa99…f152backed August Holmgren50c402.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20073458.6%430 W · 304 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed August Holmgren36c358.08$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.922,08544.5%928 W · 1,157 L-51.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d91…40d3backed August Holmgren29c356.31$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3348331.1%150 W · 333 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60a3…3850backed August Holmgren35c340.35$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.2885624.4%209 W · 647 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Facundo Acosta58c334.48$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.4884968.4%581 W · 268 L+25.9wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Facundo Acosta57c332.92$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.421,36338.3%522 W · 841 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc3…0670backed Facundo Acosta31c325.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.2648144.5%214 W · 267 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf83…915dbacked August Holmgren28c314.52$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8764537.2%240 W · 405 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked August Holmgren44c282.16$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.657,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Facundo Acosta37c280.95$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.9552341.5%217 W · 306 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked August Holmgren45c273.66$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.151,01846.8%476 W · 542 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba5…4e0ebacked Facundo Acosta62c272.99$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.9916055%88 W · 72 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7bf…b02dbacked Facundo Acosta74c270.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.2759165.3%386 W · 205 L-16.9wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Facundo Acosta73c205.48$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4884963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf92f…1a35backed August Holmgren29c196.55$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5716018.1%29 W · 131 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f64…3633backed Facundo Acosta72c182$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9699249.4%490 W · 502 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed August Holmgren31c181.65$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1659253.5%317 W · 275 L+22.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed August Holmgren26c181.2$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87fe…3cbebacked Facundo Acosta68c156.03$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.931850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe06c…adb8backed August Holmgren28c146.43$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Facundo Acosta74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.141,28760.7%781 W · 506 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4647…c863backed August Holmgren42c132.33$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.581315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x730a…8702backed August Holmgren35c128.03$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.63742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca94…838fbacked August Holmgren26c126.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8112058.3%70 W · 50 L+14.0wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+21.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed August Holmgren31c120.51$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.662,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked Facundo Acosta72c110$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.841955.8%234 W · 185 L-0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58be…2517backed August Holmgren28c107.32$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011832.2%38 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed August Holmgren41c104.03$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.586,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76d4…c512backed August Holmgren29c102.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.076732.8%22 W · 45 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-44.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Facundo Acosta72c102.53$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.73,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Facundo Acosta36c101.24$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7921949.3%108 W · 111 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d18…6f62backed Facundo Acosta71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2956062.5%350 W · 210 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed August Holmgren28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2823865.5%156 W · 82 L+31.3wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+20%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Facundo Acosta71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291,24551.9%646 W · 599 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Facundo Acosta69c99.99$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311,09452.4%573 W · 521 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26b9…9ab5backed August Holmgren67c99.97$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9821256.1%119 W · 93 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Facundo Acosta63c90.68$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.128,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58cc…2296backed Facundo Acosta73c89.04$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0414369.9%100 W · 43 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed August Holmgren46c78.26$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361,77648.6%863 W · 913 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e62…fd00backed Facundo Acosta66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7620347.3%96 W · 107 L-14.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed August Holmgren45c73.33$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a8…b1f7backed August Holmgren36c72.22$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2628738.3%110 W · 177 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked August Holmgren28c72.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.414,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa41c…79bfbacked Facundo Acosta26c69.46$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+56.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee0a…36d8backed Facundo Acosta72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4438262.3%238 W · 144 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8367…7eaebacked Facundo Acosta36c68.48$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.835628.6%16 W · 40 L-6.6wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Facundo Acosta65c68.19$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.91,62652.7%857 W · 769 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Facundo Acosta53c68$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8263746%293 W · 344 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed August Holmgren24c68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.642,11855.9%1,185 W · 933 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd38…99d4backed Facundo Acosta73c65.58$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.718653.5%46 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9483…804ebacked August Holmgren27c61.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5615514.2%22 W · 133 L-27.4wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-70.4%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd93d…27a0backed August Holmgren27c55.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9951644.8%231 W · 285 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked August Holmgren33c55.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1885449.6%424 W · 430 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f4…c415backed Facundo Acosta72c54.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.052055%11 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked August Holmgren29c52.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.541,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed August Holmgren26c52.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7452750.3%265 W · 262 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e45…39dabacked Facundo Acosta69c50.12$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5418551.9%96 W · 89 L+10.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5b3…4756backed Facundo Acosta69c50.12$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5419548.2%94 W · 101 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27cf…979abacked Facundo Acosta69c50.12$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5418148.1%87 W · 94 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e39…fe16backed Facundo Acosta30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3571021.3%151 W · 559 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x071f…92bdbacked Facundo Acosta74c49.4$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.621,07673.8%794 W · 282 L+41.1wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked August Holmgren31c49.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4566834.3%229 W · 439 L-43.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe28a…9317backed Facundo Acosta33c45.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.455261.5%32 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x782b…ff64backed Facundo Acosta56c43.19$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9731366.8%209 W · 104 L+27.1wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc057…804abacked Facundo Acosta72c41.68$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.686759.7%40 W · 27 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17f7…a181backed August Holmgren29c41.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251347%241 W · 272 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d19…bf25backed Facundo Acosta73c41.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.164755%356 W · 291 L-16.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.