TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Team Falcons, 100 Thieves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$328,507
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$369,241

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $328,507 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd30…f316backed 100 Thieves27c122,256$33,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,273.0812348.8%60 W · 63 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Team Falcons73c54,500$39,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,71522943.7%100 W · 129 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed 100 Thieves25c30,000$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,499.9941649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed 100 Thieves12c28,017$3,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,338.461,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5d8…a00bbacked Team Falcons72c27,750$19,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,769.994647.8%22 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked Team Falcons73c11,406$8,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,058.771,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Team Falcons75c10,916$8,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,762.3317062.9%107 W · 63 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67ed…085abacked Team Falcons75c7,200$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8002147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked 100 Thieves28c4,914$1,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,362.335,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad84…dcf1backed Team Falcons72c4,845$3,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,356.68475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed 100 Thieves12c3,402$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.2825355.7%141 W · 112 L+19.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed 100 Thieves24c3,338$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.0522142.5%94 W · 127 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed 100 Thieves25c3,272$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.272,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0063…2dd2backed 100 Thieves11c3,241$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.5740264.7%260 W · 142 L+49.2wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xab6a…2978backed Team Falcons72c3,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8401741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked Team Falcons72c3,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84024943.8%109 W · 140 L-1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e4d…b4cabacked Team Falcons73c2,909$2,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.53531.4%11 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60f1…aa80backed Team Falcons72c2,695$1,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.62152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2772…ac19backed Team Falcons74c2,543$1,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.38246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Team Falcons72c2,356$1,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.6821655.1%119 W · 97 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe6f…b760backed 100 Thieves1c2,278$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6831647.5%150 W · 166 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9015…281fbacked Team Falcons71c2,272$1,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.86854.4%37 W · 31 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17fe…b0cabacked 100 Thieves26c2,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52015838%60 W · 98 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c72…7e7ebacked Team Falcons73c1,925$1,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.752842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed 100 Thieves28c1,786$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50059755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed 100 Thieves15c1,667$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505836.2%21 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Falcons75c1,600$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons75c1,590$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.551,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cc7…2fd4backed 100 Thieves1c1,564$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x186c…b1fbbacked 100 Thieves12c1,515$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+129.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons75c1,500$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3751,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13f…5e0bbacked Team Falcons74c1,394$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.441450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed 100 Thieves28c1,393$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.222,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c70…9168backed Team Falcons72c1,293$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.042347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1af1…8bd4backed Team Falcons74c1,287$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.035143.1%22 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc38…3c4cbacked Team Falcons72c1,155$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.43857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Team Falcons75c1,110$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.540253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked 100 Thieves3c1,020$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.894,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc86f…e603backed Team Falcons73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2702842.9%12 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-30.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed 100 Thieves2c1,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.652,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed 100 Thieves28c999.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed 100 Thieves14c999.98$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14016542.4%70 W · 95 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e43…6583backed Team Falcons74c999.97$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.9913360.2%80 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Team Falcons75c888$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2221,14449.4%565 W · 579 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77ac…1bf6backed Team Falcons73c878.33$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.1527961.3%171 W · 108 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked 100 Thieves27c814.4$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.0244747.2%211 W · 236 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Team Falcons72c777$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.5640950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Falcons76c775.78$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.011,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc9d…de16backed Team Falcons75c758.45$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.6114060%84 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed Team Falcons74c739$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.1413646.3%63 W · 73 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad1f…7f94backed 100 Thieves15c725.6$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.845133.3%17 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54bc…b4e9backed 100 Thieves28c714.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed 100 Thieves16c714$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2432732.4%106 W · 221 L-0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…5762backed Team Falcons74c675.68$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.6817054.7%93 W · 77 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Team Falcons76c674.78$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.881,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Team Falcons75c666.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.671,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Team Falcons76c657$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.688353%44 W · 39 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed 100 Thieves6c630$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.48442.9%36 W · 48 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked 100 Thieves14c628.48$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.932,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed 100 Thieves28c599.87$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.9699148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1493…41acbacked Team Falcons74c559.58$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.493542.9%15 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc8…f527backed 100 Thieves10c534.64$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7348826.2%128 W · 360 L-44.3wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-30.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked 100 Thieves26c507.13$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.8520045%90 W · 110 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed Team Falcons74c501$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.2611849.2%58 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed 100 Thieves25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12532844.8%147 W · 181 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2fc…b1b4backed Team Falcons72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14014545.5%66 W · 79 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-19.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed 100 Thieves28c499.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14055845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed 100 Thieves18c479$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4825934%88 W · 171 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfec6…b86cbacked 100 Thieves15c458.76$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.811764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked Team Falcons77c451$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.7827940.5%113 W · 166 L-16.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea7e…f207backed 100 Thieves23c440$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.23339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Team Falcons75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3ee…7c1ebacked Team Falcons73c380.14$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.641553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6575…c2c7backed 100 Thieves28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+24.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xff7b…1659backed Team Falcons73c322.55$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.091553.3%8 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick67cpaid-20.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0daf…17a9backed 100 Thieves26c307.68$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803360.6%20 W · 13 L+5.9wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+50.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Team Falcons74c303$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7849536.4%180 W · 315 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Team Falcons71c299.98$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.8591945.8%421 W · 498 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed Team Falcons74c290$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.436446.7%170 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f65…a0adbacked Team Falcons79c261.75$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8811150.5%56 W · 55 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked 100 Thieves9c249.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.530223.2%70 W · 232 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb3e…1fbbbacked 100 Thieves14c248$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.725343.4%23 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba39…b4b6backed Team Falcons74c247.48$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.341546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed 100 Thieves26c233.65$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7511960.5%72 W · 47 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bfb…8beabacked Team Falcons73c216$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.324654.3%25 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd07…cb4ebacked 100 Thieves8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513252.3%69 W · 63 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed 100 Thieves26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5255941%229 W · 330 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec97…4d68backed Team Falcons75c199.55$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.89955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-19.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1967…30b5backed Team Falcons73c195.61$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2329246.9%137 W · 155 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccdc…dbe6backed 100 Thieves26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5036749.3%181 W · 186 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8142…989cbacked Team Falcons75c174.73$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Team Falcons78c141$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.811,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcccc…05b2backed Team Falcons76c132.45$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.791963.2%12 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick78cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked Team Falcons73c132$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6415337.3%57 W · 96 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37bd…ed2abacked 100 Thieves28c132$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.486344.4%28 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a48…42c5backed Team Falcons75c125.07$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.271540%6 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c0…1506backed Team Falcons77c121.56$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.793571.4%25 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fd9…932fbacked 100 Thieves26c119.24$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313360.6%20 W · 13 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+41.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3416…adaabacked 100 Thieves17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2028935.3%102 W · 187 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed 100 Thieves27c114.03$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5932554.8%178 W · 147 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.