TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Chargers Team Total: O/U 20.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,263
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,263

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,263 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x281f…acfdbacked Over48c207$99 inWon+$107.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf464…a89bbacked Under52c200$104 inLost-$10420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x535a…58e8backed Over48c200$96 inWon+$104250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bb4…e187backed Under52c193$100 inLost-$100.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b5…b5f8backed Over47c184$86 inWon+$97.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2994…92d2backed Over48c182$87 inWon+$94.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+139.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe60…4374backed Over47c181$85 inWon+$95.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92aa…04b5backed Under53c175$93 inLost-$92.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8748…e745backed Under53c175$93 inLost-$92.75250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a0f…8837backed Under52c169$88 inLost-$87.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48a9…0d53backed Under51c51$26 inLost-$26.01944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4970…21f6backed Under50c45$23 inLost-$22.51258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5a1…e6f5backed Under51c28$14 inLost-$14.28633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4669…785ebacked Under50c26$13 inLost-$131060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.