NFL · resolved market
1H Spread: Eagles (-0.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ce69711de113bd760e0c78dcec8a2b4e2b57d4a0ddce015664ef3af2d5119d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chargersof Eagles, Chargers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedfa…58d6backed Eagles | 48c | 209$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…9c8cbacked Eagles | 48c | 207$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee9b…d3b6backed Chargers | 52c | 199$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…9da1backed Chargers | 52c | 196$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…50c3backed Eagles | 48c | 196$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Chargers | 50c | 195$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1371…2678backed Eagles | 48c | 194$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…ea6fbacked Eagles | 48c | 194$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047c…69b6backed Eagles | 48c | 190$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…a44fbacked Chargers | 52c | 190$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4d…2051backed Chargers | 52c | 188$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c9…50dcbacked Eagles | 48c | 184$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d9…a4d1backed Eagles | 48c | 184$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28a…2045backed Chargers | 52c | 179$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ae…7348backed Chargers | 52c | 178$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ce…5cfdbacked Chargers | 52c | 177$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde70…d7f3backed Eagles | 48c | 175$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…0831backed Chargers | 52c | 175$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a22…847bbacked Chargers | 57c | 174.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc4…33cbbacked Eagles | 48c | 173$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034d…10d2backed Chargers | 52c | 167$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…7762backed Chargers | 52c | 164$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Eagles | 42c | 131.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Chargers | 51c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Chargers | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Eagles | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…e3c9backed Eagles | 50c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 57cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Eagles | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Eagles | 50c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Chargers | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…77fdbacked Eagles | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Chargers | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Chargers | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…e4e5backed Eagles | 49c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Chargers | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Chargers | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Eagles | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed Eagles | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Eagles | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Eagles (-0.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Eagles (-1.5)Chargers won
- Chargers Team Total: O/U 20.5Over won
- Eagles Team Total: O/U 21.5Under won
- Eagles vs. ChargersChargers won
- Eagles vs. Chargers: 1H MoneylineChargers won
- Eagles vs. Chargers: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Chargers: 1H O/U 21.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Chargers: O/U 34.5Over won
- Eagles vs. Chargers: O/U 36.5Over won
- Eagles vs. Chargers: O/U 39.5Over won
- Eagles vs. Chargers: O/U 40.5Over won
- Eagles vs. Chargers: O/U 41.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Chargers: O/U 42.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Chargers: O/U 43.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Chargers: O/U 46.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Chargers: O/U 47.5Under won
- Jalen Hurts: 2+ TouchdownsNo won
- Spread: Chargers (-3.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-1.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Eagles (-2.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Eagles (-3.5)Chargers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.