NFL · resolved market
Eagles vs. Chargers: O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16ab4ea53244e9eb689867598024a3fe3b6cd500d4a9d022eaf2eea613b7bb44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 10,952$4,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,818.13 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked Over | 56c | 4,175$2,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,837 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 56c | 1,773$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.05 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Over | 55c | 1,356$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.56 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…d410backed Over | 56c | 848.36$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.28 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 847.76$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.59 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 55c | 585.75$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.59 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe81c…a724backed Over | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb457…b13abacked Over | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 502.65$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.16 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Over | 56c | 491.07$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.07 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Over | 55c | 478.57$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.57 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Over | 59c | 314.58$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.98 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Over | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe595…4135backed Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…2e7fbacked Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 46c | 198$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 46c | 155$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 40c | 140$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…955abacked Over | 56c | 119.66$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…1dbebacked Over | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e3…6548backed Over | 55c | 72.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…35b7backed Over | 56c | 70.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 64.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 47c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +15.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Under | 45c | 61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…8b58backed Over | 54c | 59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 47c | 56.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd59a…ac62backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 44c | 55.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…6febbacked Over | 54c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Over | 54c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Over | 53c | 49.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed Over | 54c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Under | 46c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked Under | 45c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0622backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…87ddbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab53…c351backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Under | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed Over | 54c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x565f…4050backed Over | 55c | 28.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Over | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…f2d1backed Over | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2999…50bcbacked Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Over | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Under | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Over | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed Over | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eagles vs. Chargers: O/U 40.5this page
- 1H Spread: Eagles (-0.5)Chargers won
- 1H Spread: Eagles (-1.5)Chargers won
- Chargers Team Total: O/U 20.5Over won
- Eagles Team Total: O/U 21.5Under won
- Eagles vs. ChargersChargers won
- Eagles vs. Chargers: 1H MoneylineChargers won
- Eagles vs. Chargers: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Chargers: 1H O/U 21.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Chargers: O/U 34.5Over won
- Eagles vs. Chargers: O/U 36.5Over won
- Eagles vs. Chargers: O/U 39.5Over won
- Eagles vs. Chargers: O/U 41.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Chargers: O/U 42.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Chargers: O/U 43.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Chargers: O/U 46.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Chargers: O/U 47.5Under won
- Jalen Hurts: 2+ TouchdownsNo won
- Spread: Chargers (-3.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-1.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Eagles (-2.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Eagles (-3.5)Chargers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.