Fifa International · resolved market
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x993536cf8822b64c6d868a59de017e9394d2df204db3d5e2643ae2e9fd9e87f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdde…c019backed Yes | 78c | 2,008$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,565.47 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed No | 32c | 1,598$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.6 | 534 | 48.5%259 W · 275 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb766…1d83backed Yes | 70c | 1,363$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.92 | 145 | 34.5%50 W · 95 L | -11.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked No | 22c | 1,029$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.84 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…6070backed No | 22c | 599.49$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.6 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Yes | 71c | 532.68$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.2 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 64c | 518$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.21 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 34c | 467.63$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.17 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…3048backed No | 21c | 396.98$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.61 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…48a6backed Yes | 79c | 374.03$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.83 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…2469backed No | 45c | 368.75$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.5 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 30c | 336.57$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.8 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 31c | 327.01$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.64 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 67c | 284$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.12 | 181 | 39.8%72 W · 109 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd97…0ec5backed Yes | 72c | 245$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.45 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 30c | 241$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.7 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked No | 75c | 235.48$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 252 | 44.8%113 W · 139 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 22c | 225$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 24c | 213.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.45 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Yes | 55c | 213.13$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.09 | 208 | 41.3%86 W · 122 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 184 | 60.9%112 W · 72 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.99 | 550 | 44.7%246 W · 304 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…6de4backed Yes | 71c | 197.18$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 272 | 39%106 W · 166 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 194.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.93 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 69c | 180$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 163 | 33.7%55 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0584…75eabacked Yes | 56c | 178.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 69c | 175$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.75 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 171.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.2 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked Yes | 57c | 165$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3022…59c1backed Yes | 76c | 145.57$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.63 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc0…12e6backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89df…f8d0backed Yes | 71c | 141.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 68c | 136$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.48 | 426 | 40.1%171 W · 255 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c1…473ebacked No | 24c | 133.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.83 | 513 | 15.6%80 W · 433 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc3…a134backed Yes | 79c | 126.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…51d2backed No | 33c | 120.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 120$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.52 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 66c | 116$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 68c | 106.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.68 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 103.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 802 | 25.7%206 W · 596 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…ed9dbacked Yes | 79c | 101.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…b72ebacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 85 | 25.9%22 W · 63 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce2…957fbacked Yes | 71c | 72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc5…cc25backed No | 21c | 66.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d82…3a1bbacked Yes | 68c | 58.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 65c | 56.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 27c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 147 | 39.5%58 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 26c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 272 | 55.9%152 W · 120 L | +36.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…5a3dbacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8467…f9e4backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 27c | 49.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 28c | 44.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 71c | 44.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…9a45backed No | 35c | 41.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 77c | 37.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 361 | 39.1%141 W · 220 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…1d65backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…a2bcbacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…d264backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…8c5fbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -8.9wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec7…4a76backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebab…cff5backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 72c | 19.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 235 | 43%101 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…ee15backed Yes | 72c | 17.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab45…7d04backed Yes | 79c | 16.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x530f…424ebacked Yes | 71c | 15.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?this page
- Will Czechia finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Yes won
- Will South Korea finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.