TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Team Falcons, BetBoom Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$309,455
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$332,814

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $309,455 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 229 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed BetBoom Team53c141,654$75,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,288.211,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked Team Falcons46c71,753$32,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,757.9123435.9%84 W · 150 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Team Falcons47c12,315$5,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,526.9727645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3c…0cf1backed Team Falcons50c10,642$5,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,360.62771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+38.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd690…47febacked Team Falcons47c10,500$4,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,564.99742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Team Falcons45c10,000$4,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4806535.4%23 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-27.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xde82…705dbacked BetBoom Team28c9,665$2,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,706.24942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56a6…e5aebacked Team Falcons72c7,600$5,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1283164.5%20 W · 11 L+5.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+58.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfcdc…4281backed Team Falcons45c6,116$2,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,336.331764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb496…1f45backed Team Falcons44c6,000$2,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3602259.1%13 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.19per pick40cpaid+65.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Team Falcons44c5,832$2,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,265.8812250%61 W · 61 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6129…0807backed Team Falcons46c5,614$2,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,031.473641.7%15 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed BetBoom Team55c5,459$3,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,009.4893546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab6a…2978backed BetBoom Team29c4,490$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.092646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed BetBoom Team48c4,356$2,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,109.259954.5%54 W · 45 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Team Falcons45c4,240$1,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,334.7726843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6840…6003backed BetBoom Team37c3,932$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.851662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Team Falcons46c3,500$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,89016746.1%77 W · 90 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69b1…2687backed Team Falcons44c3,010$1,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,685.61650%8 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+30.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedcc…41a1backed Team Falcons50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5001040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed BetBoom Team55c3,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.9934860.1%209 W · 139 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Falcons58c2,940$1,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.921,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Team Falcons45c2,349$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,291.9577941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63bc…92c5backed Team Falcons46c2,200$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.9911045.5%50 W · 60 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a9a…a9c7backed BetBoom Team43c2,068$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.731827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Falcons53c2,000$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.61,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0b…bc0dbacked Team Falcons44c1,920$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6729…f17dbacked Team Falcons71c1,900$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.991464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+44.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x13c8…a814backed BetBoom Team49c1,844$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick46cpaid-77.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed BetBoom Team17c1,726$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.6741455.6%230 W · 184 L+41.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Team Falcons44c1,700$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95281029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1852…10b1backed BetBoom Team55c1,697$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.83243.8%14 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-25.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed Team Falcons44c1,500$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84018830.9%58 W · 130 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcefd…d6aabacked Team Falcons46c1,476$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Team Falcons44c1,419$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.7317040.6%69 W · 101 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd47c…39b5backed Team Falcons46c1,366$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.23560%21 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+25%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeef9…8731backed BetBoom Team54c1,162$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.2625956.8%147 W · 112 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e6…23c2backed BetBoom Team54c1,140$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.991020%2 W · 8 L-4.8wins-0.48per pick68cpaid-72.4%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked BetBoom Team18c1,129$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.0723736.7%87 W · 150 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d6f…789bbacked BetBoom Team51c1,125$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.754742.6%20 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Falcons46c1,118$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.221,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91b9…889fbacked BetBoom Team50c1,073$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5359145.1%41 W · 50 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked BetBoom Team53c1,072$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.4810637.7%40 W · 66 L-9.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Team Falcons44c1,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56026846.6%125 W · 143 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed BetBoom Team50c981.9$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.951,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Falcons48c971.76$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.3280443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Team Falcons67c964.39$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.2537811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9c…91e9backed Team Falcons44c949.42$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.68475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+133.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ff1…2dd7backed BetBoom Team54c939.99$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.63348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed BetBoom Team54c921$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7525266.3%167 W · 85 L+20.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2931…7b81backed BetBoom Team11c900.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018660.8%113 W · 73 L+12.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team Falcons48c887.55$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.5271143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f07…53d1backed BetBoom Team46c878.79$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40021739.2%85 W · 132 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a85…ff94backed BetBoom Team56c857.02$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47929352.9%155 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BetBoom Team37c828.65$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.592,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed Team Falcons45c792.15$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.5418247.8%87 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd799…326cbacked BetBoom Team52c762.82$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.295038%19 W · 31 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Team Falcons45c761.02$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.838142%160 W · 221 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed BetBoom Team56c728.57$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40822260.4%134 W · 88 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons58c681.45$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.441,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked BetBoom Team35c667.21$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.471,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Team Falcons55c650.86$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.6669132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons56c609.24$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.061,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Team Falcons62c591$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.362846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd385…34fbbacked Team Falcons45c575.16$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.494360.5%26 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Falcons68c564.96$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.871,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54a0…111abacked BetBoom Team52c560.73$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.586547.7%31 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked BetBoom Team33c555.32$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.8889938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Team Falcons76c542.87$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.332548.9%159 W · 166 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked BetBoom Team48c530.83$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.711,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x335d…8c00backed Team Falcons46c519.44$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.44977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.27per pick50cpaid+62.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked BetBoom Team22c500$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11266545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked BetBoom Team29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14559254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Team Falcons61c468.8$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.748539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Team Falcons44c462$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.7265441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Team Falcons48c461.92$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.0712646%58 W · 68 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed BetBoom Team56c447.81$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25025248.8%123 W · 129 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d4d…2008backed BetBoom Team52c443.98$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.989054.4%49 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Falcons68c437.34$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.9585851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Team Falcons46c434.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.788536.5%31 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4905…1683backed BetBoom Team51c419$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.694843.8%21 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked BetBoom Team19c400$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7661449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a61…f47bbacked BetBoom Team55c399.99$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Team Falcons71c397.92$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.665647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9227…7cedbacked Team Falcons78c383$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6e0…9970backed BetBoom Team54c382.4$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.51838.9%7 W · 11 L-4.0wins-0.22per pick61cpaid-42%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked BetBoom Team37c372.12$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.8325143.4%109 W · 142 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked BetBoom Team30c357.61$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2556945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64a3…450abacked Team Falcons45c350$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.55429.6%16 W · 38 L-8.4wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-36.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed BetBoom Team27c344.1$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2658943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Team Falcons46c339$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.8811649.1%57 W · 59 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f3e…7befbacked BetBoom Team29c329.77$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.636660.6%40 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Team Falcons45c323.2$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.7612740.2%51 W · 76 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x237f…362ebacked BetBoom Team31c309.11$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.274337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed BetBoom Team33c300$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10052046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fb7…0bd3backed BetBoom Team15c299.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed BetBoom Team52c299.99$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15667555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15d1…ccfebacked BetBoom Team46c299.99$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9954659.7%326 W · 220 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked Team Falcons71c285$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.255740.4%23 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Team Falcons47c284.23$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.6210952.3%57 W · 52 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.